목차
Foreword 3
Overview 4
1 Macro-financial and credit environment 14
1.1 Policy uncertainty and geopolitical tensions weigh on euro area growth outlook 14
1.2 Concerns about sovereign debt levels have risen 17
Box 1 Financial markets and investor behaviour in times of stress in euro area sovereign bond markets 20
1.3 High borrowing costs and weak growth prospects put pressure on corporate balance sheets 22
1.4 Higher savings underpin household resilience 24
1.5 Downside risks remain in real estate markets despite an improved outlook for the sector 27
Box 2 Rents or rates: what is driving the commercial real estate market? 30
2 Financial markets 33
2.1 Markets respond to a shifting balance of risk 33
2.2 Markets remain vulnerable to bouts of volatility amid heightened geopolitical and policy uncertainty 38
2.3 High risk of adverse global spillovers to euro area financial markets 41
Box 3 Passive investing and its impact on return co-movement, market concentration and liquidity in euro area equity markets 44
3 Euro area banking sector 49
3.1 Banks’ overall funding costs are set to decline 49
3.2 Asset quality is deteriorating slowly and provisioning needs are likely to increase 52
3.3 Bank profitability is set to moderate from multi-year highs 56
3.4 Capital and liquidity buffers remain robust, but banks’ market valuations are still subdued 59
Box 4 Euro area banks as intermediators of US dollar liquidity via repo and FX swap markets 62
4 Non-bank financial sector 67
4.1 Non-bank portfolios may face valuation headwinds 67
4.2 A growing investment fund sector remains vulnerable to liquidity, leverage and concentration risks 70
Box 5 The potential impact on the euro area bond market of forced asset sales by euro area investment funds 73
4.3 Strong solvency and improving profitability for insurers 76
5 Macroprudential policy issues 79
5.1 Ensuring resilience in times of headwinds and uncertainty remains essential 79
5.2 Progress on the capital markets union will be key to supporting EU-wide productivity and growth 82
5.3 Enhancing the policy framework for NBFI from a macroprudential perspective 84
Special Features 88
A Communication for financial crisis prevention: a tale of two decades 88
B Low firm productivity: the role of finance and the implications for financial stability 105
