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Climate change and the decline of labor share
(기후 변화와 노동 소득 분배율의 감소)

□ 이 보고서는 기후 변화가 노동 소득 분배율에 미치는 영향을 분석한 연구로, 미국 카운티별 데이터를 활용함. 연구 결과, 극한 온도는 노동 소득 분배율을 감소시키며, 특히 야외 작업 노출이 높은 산업에서 그 영향이 더 큼. 또한, 이러한 기후 변화는 산업용 로봇의 도입을 촉진시키는 요인으로 작용함

□ 2001년부터 2019년 사이, 기후 변화는 노동 소득 분배율 감소의 약 14%를 설명함. 고온일수 증가와 저온일수 감소는 기업들이 자동화를 통해 노동력을 대체하게 만드는 주요 요인으로 나타났음. 반면, 지난 세기에는 고온일수 증가와 저온일수 감소의 상쇄 효과로 노동 소득 분배율의 안정성이 유지됨

□ 이 연구는 기후 변화가 노동 시장에 미치는 장기적 영향을 조명하며, 특히 자동화와 노동 대체 현상을 중심으로 경제적 불평등의 심화 문제를 제기함. 이러한 결과는 기후 변화 적응 전략과 노동 보호 정책의 필요성을 강조함

목차

Title page

Contents

Abstract 3

1. Introduction 4

2. Data 7

2.1. Climate Data 7

2.2. Labor Share 8

2.3. Covariates 9

3. Empirical Analysis 9

3.1. Baseline Results 9

3.2. Robustness Checks 12

4. Mechanism 13

4.1. Occupational Characteristics 13

4.2. Climate-Induced Automation 17

5. Assessment of Macroeconomic Impacts 20

6. Conclusion 21

References 23

Appendices for Online Publication 27

I. Additional Data Details 28

II. Additional Analyses 37

Table 1. Climate Change and Labor Share (by County-by-NAICS Industries, 2001-2019) 11

Table 2. Sensitivity of Climate Impacts to Temperature Exposure and Automation Potential 15

Table 3. Climate and Robot Adoption Across Industries 19

Figure 1. Climate Change and Labor Share in the US 5

Figure 2. Implied Impacts of Climate Change on Labor Share (1950-2001 vs. 2001-2019) 22

Table A-1. Summary Statistics 33

Table A-2. By Temperature Thresholds 38

Table A-3. By Treatment Window 39

Table A-4. By Measurements of Labor Shares 40

Table A-5. Dropping industries and regions 41

Table A-6. By Inclusion of Fixed Effects 42

Table A-7. The Impacts of Severer Temperature 43

Table A-8. By Temperature Thresholds (industrial robots from the BEA) 47

Table A-9. By Temperature Thresholds (industrial robots from the IFR) 48

Table A-10. Lagged Climate Effects on Robot Investments (industrial robots from the BEA) 49

Table A-11. Climate Impact on Capital Deployment by Broad Categories 50

Table A-12. Climate Impact on Digitalization 50

Figure A-1. Weather Stations in the US Mainland 28

Figure A-2. Hot and Cold Days across US Counties 29

Figure A-3. Exposure to Climate Change in the US 30

Figure A-4. Alternative Measures of the Labor Share 31

Figure A-5. Labor Shares across US Counties 32

Figure A-6. Hot Days and Labor Shares across US States (2019) 34

Figure A-7. Measurement: BEA Robots vs. IFR Robots 37

Figure A-8. Models with Sector heterogeneity and Adaptation 45

Figure A-9. Robustness Checks of Assessment across Modeling Choices 51

Figure A-10. Implied Impacts of Climate Change on Labor Shares 52

해시태그

#기후변화 # 노동소득분배율 # 노동시장

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Climate change and the decline of labor share

(기후 변화와 노동 소득 분배율의 감소)