목차
Introduction
Unpacking the U.S. Calculus
The Three-Tiered Framework: First-Class, Coach, and No Ticket
A Firewall with No Backdoors: A Full-Stack Approach to Diversion
The Collateral Damage on Allies and Partners
Understanding the Tiered Framework
T1: The Inner Circle
T2: Eclectic Middle Ground
T3: The Usual Suspects
T1 Access and Restrictions
T2 Access and Restrictions
The Shrinking Reality of 50,000 and 1,700 GPU Caps
How T2 Countries Can Increase Their Caps
T3 Access and Restrictions
The Uneven Impact of the AI Diffusion Rule
Biggest Losers
Biggest Winners
The Theory of Success for the United States
Creating Economic Pressure: The Approval Gap Between UVEU and NVEU
Lock-In Effects
Potential Response from China and Allies
The Hardware Gap: China’s Compute Gap
Second-Tier Status, First-Tier Ambitions
The False Binary: The United States vs. China vs. a Third Way
Short-Term Adjustments, Long-Term Realignment
The Open-Source Escape Valve
The Fragile Equilibrium and Conditions for Unraveling
Conclusion and Recommendations
