Glossary 8
Abbreviations 12
FOREWORD 14
1 Introduction 16
2 Current status and development of voluntary carbon markets 18
    2.1 Operating policies of voluntary carbon markets 18
    2.2 Development needs of voluntary carbon markets 26
    2.3 Development of voluntary carbon markets in relation to needs 29
        2.3.1 Responsible use of carbon credits 29
        2.3.2 Reliable claims 34
        2.3.3 Credit quality assurance 38
    2.4 Potential trajectories for voluntary carbon markets 44
        2.4.1 Proliferation of contribution claims 46
        2.4.2 Significant decline in product carbon neutrality claims 47
        2.4.3 Proliferation of organisational carbon neutrality claims consistent with good practices 48
        2.4.4 Growing popularity of non-credit-based mitigation activities 49
        2.4.5 Proliferation of net-zero targets 50
        2.4.6 Divergence of carbon credit characteristics in terms of permanence 50
3 Views of domestic operators on market changes 52
    3.1 Potential for production of carbon credits in Finland 52
        3.1.1 Nature-based mitigation activities and their production potential in Finland 53
        3.1.2 Technological removals and their potential in Finland 59
    3.2 Views of domestic operators on changes in the international regulatory framework and market drivers 61
        3.2.1 Nature-based mitigation activities 61
        3.2.2 Views of experts and operators on market drivers for technological removals 64
4 Impacts of trajectories from the government perspective 69
    4.1 Impacts of trajectories on national and global net emissions 69
        4.1.1 Impacts of trajectories on mitigation outcomes generated in Finland 71
        4.1.2 Impacts of trajectories on achievement of Finland’s climate target 76
        4.1.3 Impacts of trajectories on global net emissions 79
    4.2 Impacts on national regulation and information guidance 81
        4.2.1 Operators’ cooperation and self-regulatory body 82
        4.2.2 Carbon credit registry 84
        4.2.3 Guide to good practices for voluntary carbon markets 84
        4.2.4 Green Deal 87
        4.2.5 Consumer Ombudsman’s guidelines 88
5 Conclusions 90
References 92