□ WTO는 “이 수치는 이번 주 초까지 시행된 세계 각국의 관세 조치를 분석해 반영한 결과”라며 “만약 미국이 교역 대상국에 대한 상호 관세를 전면 도입할 경우 이보다 더 큰 폭의 교역 위축이 일어날 것”이라고 경고함. 또한 WTO는 “유예 중인 상호 관세가 실제로 시행되면 충격이 더 커져 상품 교역이 (0.2%보다 큰) 1.5% 감소할 전망”이라고 전함
□ 응고지 오콘조이웨알라 WTO 사무총장은 이날 기자회견에서 “미국과 중국의 공급망 분리가 심각해지면 세계가 양극화된 두 구역으로 쪼개지는 지정학적 분열이 일어날 것”이라며 “이런 일이 일어나면 전 세계 국내총생산(GDP)이 장기적으로 7% 줄어들 수 있다”고 밝힘
[출처] 트럼프발 관세 전쟁 우려에…WTO 무역 성장률 전망 3%→-0.2%로 수정 (2025.04.17.) / 조선일보
목차
Title page 1
Contents 3
Acknowledgements 2
Executive summary 4
Outlook for world trade in 2025 and 2026 5
Merchandise trade 5
Commercial services trade 11
Trade-related indicators 18
Drivers of trade and output 19
Fragmentation of world trade 22
Analytical Chapter: Modelling trade policy uncertainty and changes in tariffs 24
Bibliography 38
Tables 8
Table 1. Merchandise trade volume and GDP growth, 2023-2026 8
Table 2. Commercial services trade volume growth, 2023-2026 11
Table 3. Projected change in growth rate of trade and GDP for different regions 27
Boxes 13
Box 1. Measuring global services trade in volume terms 13
Box 2. Economic effects of tariffs 21
Charts 6
Chart 1. World merchandise trade volume and GDP growth, 2019-2026 6
Chart 2. Contributions to world merchandise trade volume growth by region, 2023-2026 7
Chart 3. Merchandise export and import volume indices by region, 2019Q1-2024Q4 9
Chart 4. Merchandise trade growth by product 10
Chart 5. Merchandise trade of LDCs, 2020‑2024 10
Chart 6. Commercial services trade volume, 2015-2027 12
Chart 7. Commercial services trade volume adjusted forecast, 2015-2026 13
Chart 8a. Commercial services trade growth in value and volume terms, 2019-2024 14
Chart 8b. Computer services trade growth in value and volume terms, 2019-2024 14
Chart 9. Commercial services trade growth by sector, 2023-2024 15
Chart 10. Commercial services trade growth by region and main sector, 2024 16
Chart 11. Global container throughput index, January 2019-February 2025 18
Chart 12. New export orders from purchasing managers indices (PMIs) 19
Chart 13. Trade within and between hypothetical geopolitical blocs (left) and difference of between-bloc and within-bloc trade (right) 23
Chart 14. WTO members' average tariff, 2022 25
Chart 15. Trade-weighted average US tariff increase and contribution of different policies 28
Chart 16. Projected change in growth rate of world trade and GDP 29
Chart 17. Projected changes in real GDP as a function of the share of exports going to the United States 30
Chart 18. Trade diversion impacts: projected per cent changes in merchandise exports to the United States and imports from China and projected point changes... 31
Appendix Tables 33
Appendix Table 1. Leading exporters and importers in world merchandise trade, 2024 33
Appendix Table 2. Leading exporters and importers in world merchandise trade excluding intra-EU trade, 2024 34
Appendix Table 3. Leading exporters and importers of commercial services, 2024 35
Appendix Table 4. Leading exporters and importers of commercial services excluding intra-EU trade, 2024 36
Appendix Table 5. Leading exporters and importers of digitally delivered services, 2024 37
