목차
Title page 1
Contents 1
Abstract 2
1. Introduction 3
2. Anchored Inflation Expectations 5
3. An Illustration of the Benefits of Responding to Long-run Inflation Expectations 9
4. A small model 11
5. Quantitative Evaluation in a Large-Scale Policy Model 21
6. Do the results owe to a focus on inefficient policies? 27
7. Conclusions 30
References 31
Appendix 1: Calibration of Shocks in Small Model and FRB/US Model 35
Appendix 2: Model Codes and Replication Files 36
Appendix 3: Data 37
Tables 8
Table 1. Summary statistics for measures of expected inflation 8
Table 2. Calibrated parameter values for small model 13
Table 3. Simulated Outcomes in Small Model Under Alternative Policy Strategies 20
Table 4. Simulated Outcomes in FRB/US Under Alternative Policy Strategies 26
Table 5. Simulated Outcomes Under Policy Strategies with Rule Coefficients Optimized for the Small Model 29
Figures 6
Figure 1. Measures of inflation expectations from surveys and financial markets 6
Figure 2. Survey measures of 5yr, 5yr forward inflation in selected countries 8
Figure 3. Nominal Interest Rate and Inflation Under Alternative Policy Reaction Functions 10
Figure 4. Impulse responses to monetary, aggregate demand, and aggregate supply shocks in small model 14
Figure 5. Impulse response from shock to the equilibrium real interest rate 15
Figure 6. Impulse response with and without policy response to far-forward inflation expectations 17
Figure 7. Impulse response in presence of ELB with and without policy response to far-forward inflation expectations 18
Appendix Tables 36
Table A. Simulated Outcomes Under Policy Strategies with Rule Coefficients Optimized for the Small Model 36
