목차
Title page 1
Contents 5
Abstract/Résumé 4
1. Introduction 7
2. Productivity and human capital accumulation: some stylised facts 9
2.1. Productivity growth has slowed across the OECD 9
2.2. The rate of human capital accumulation has slowed over time 10
2.3. The productivity slowdown coincided with a human capital deceleration 14
3. Human capital accumulation and education policies 16
3.1. Main channels affecting PISA test scores 16
3.2. The link between PISA scores and education policies, digital device usage and the COVID-19 pandemic 20
3.3. The economic significance of the estimated effects for education policy reforms 24
4. Accounting for the decline in PISA test scores since 2009 26
5. Human capital allocation and productivity growth 29
6. The future of human capital and productivity 33
6.1. Baseline scenarios 33
6.2. Policy reform scenarios 35
Concluding remarks 36
References 37
Appendix A. Productivity growth 39
Appendix B. Human capital growth 42
Appendix C. The link between human capital and productivity in the QASR framework 44
Appendix D. Detailed estimations results 46
Appendix E. Reform scenarios and the decomposition of drivers of PISA decline, country-specific results 49
Tables 6
Table 1. Restrictions applying to smartphone use in schools in OECD countries 19
Table 2. Drivers of PISA test scores - baseline regressions, 2009-2022 21
Table 3. Drivers of PISA test scores - additional policies, 2015-2022 22
Table 4. Drivers of PISA test scores - digital device use, 2018-2022 23
Table 5. Drivers of PISA test scores - COVID-19 effects, 2022 23
Table 6. The decomposition of drivers of declining PISA test scores, OECD average 29
Table 7. Human capital interacted with framework policies in the QASR Productivity regressions, 1985-2022 32
Figures 5
Figure 1. Productivity slowdown in the OECD 10
Figure 2. Human capital stock in the OECD, 1987-2022 11
Figure 3. Student test results in the OECD, 1970/1995-2022 12
Figure 4. Change in PISA scores over time and across OECD countries 13
Figure 5. Human capital accumulation and the productivity slowdown in the OECD, 1987-2022 14
Figure 6. Human capital and the productivity slowdown - country-specific estimates 15
Figure 7. Why did PISA scores decline? A framework for analysis 16
Figure 8. Education policies vary across OECD countries, 2022 24
Figure 9. Education policies vary across OECD countries, 2022 25
Figure 10. The scope for education policy reforms to lift PISA performance 26
Figure 11. Productivity, human capital accumulation and human capital utilisation & allocation 30
Figure 12. Human capital - productivity link varies across the OECD 31
Figure 13. Skill mismatches in OECD countries 31
Figure 14. Human capital pass-through to productivity, conditional on policies enhancing reallocation and adaptability 33
Figure 15. Projected future human capital and productivity without policy action 34
Figure 16. Projected future human capital and productivity with policy action 35
Boxes 6
Box 1. A novel measure of human capital stock combining education quality and quantity 11
Box 2. Assumption underlying the accounting framework 27
Box Tables 27
Table B2-1. Changes in the policy variables, OECD average 27
Appendix Tables 41
Table A1. Updated QASR Productivity regressions, 1985-2022 41
Table B1. Productivity and human capital growth, OECD, 1987-2022 43
Table D1. Subject-specific results, 2009-2022 46
Table D2. Full results, 2015-2022 46
Table D3. Full results, 2018-2022 47
Table D4. Full results, 2022 48
Table E1. The impact of potential country-specific education policy reforms on PISA scores 50
Table E2. Country-specific PISA effects of education policies, digital device use and Covid-19 51
Appendix Figures 39
Figure A1. Potential growth decomposition 39
Figure A2. Productivity slowdown in the OECD, 2016/19 vs. 1995-2000 41
Figure B1. Human capital growth and its components, OECD, 1987-2023 42
Figure C1. Human capital and the QASR framework 45
Figure C2. Human capital and productivity across countries 45
Figure E1. Macroeconomic effects of education and structural reforms 49
Appendix Boxes 44
Box C1. The OECD Quantification of Structural Reforms (QASR) framework 44
