목차
Title page 1
Contents 4
Acknowledgements 2
Introduction 5
1. Organized crime in war time: adapting and seizing new opportunities 8
1.1. Overview of crime statistics 11
1.2. Response to organized crime activity 12
2. Drug trafficking: the rise of synthetic drugs and fall of heroin markets 14
2.1. Routes: relocation of trafficking 17
2.2. Cocaine: traffickers have adapted by changing supply routes 19
2.3. Heroin: trafficking routes disrupted, domestic market in crisis 19
2.4. Synthetic drugs 21
2.5. The organized crime behind the rise of synthetic drugs 22
3. Scams and online fraud: the call centres of crime 27
3.1. The rise in cyberfraud 28
3.2. Involvement of organized crime 29
3.3. The organizational structure of call centres 30
4. Arms trafficking: increased availability and attention 32
4.1. Availability of arms and violent crime: a conflict-related pattern 34
4.2. Diversity of sources of illicit weapons 37
4.3. Actors possessing and trafficking weapons and ammunition 40
5. Smuggling of goods: damaging the economy 43
5.1. Smuggling and customs fraud in Ukraine 44
5.2. Illegal cigarette trade 47
6. Trafficking in persons: exploiting those in need of refuge 49
7. Facilitation of illegal border crossing of men and draft evasion 55
8. Recommendations 60
Annex A. Interview Sources 65
Annex B. Scope and methods 67
B.1. Code of Conduct for research consultants 69
B.1.1. Overview and Guiding Principles 69
B.1.2. Ethical Standards 70
B.1.3. How to apply the Code of Conduct: Practical Guidelines 72
B.2. Guidelines for interviews 75
B.2.1. Key Informant Interviews 75
B.2.2. General Tips 75
B.2.3. Conducting the Interviews 77
B.3. Templates for Interviews with Key Informants 80
Charts 11
Chart 1. Number of convicted organized criminal groups (OCGs) and OCG participants in Ukraine, 2019-2023 11
Chart 2. Share of drugs detected by the State Border Service of Ukraine, by border of detection, 2021, 2022, Jan-Sept 2023, in kilograms 18
Chart 3. Weapons, ammunition, and explosives seized as part of concluded criminal proceedings 36
Chart 4. Trend in detected human trafficking offences and victims in Ukraine, 2019-2023 51
Boxes 12
Box 1. Targeting "thieves-in-law" 12
Box 2. Case study: a synthetic drug lab adapts to war 25
Box 3. The organization of a fraud call centre 31
Box 4. Production and modification of small armed drones: risks for a new criminal market 42
Box 5. Smuggling schemes according to the Ukrainian authorities 45
Box 6.1. The case of exploitation of IDPs in Lviv region 52
Box 6.2. The recruitment of children in the context of armed conflict 53
Box 7. Illicit provision of draft exemption and travel permits 57
Maps 7
Map 1. Topographic map of Ukraine 7
Map 2a. Seizures above 100g in Ukraine and neighboring countries, before the war (Nov 2019-Feb 2022) 16
Map 2b. Seizures above 100g in Ukraine and neighboring countries, after the start of the war (March 2022-May 2024) 16
Map 3. Seizures of opiates before and after the start of the war, Ukraine 20
Map 4. Individual Drug Seizures of synthetic drugs before and after the start of the war, Ukraine 22
Map 5. Change in the number of dismantied drug labs before (2020-2022) and after the start of the war (2022-2023), by oblast, Ukraine 23
