목차
Title page 1
Contents 2
Executive Summary 4
I. Introduction 7
II. Misguided Assumptions 9
A. Off on the Wrong Foot 9
B. Persistent Wagers 10
1. Russia: Two big bets 10
2. Ukraine, its backers and prospective peacemakers: In search of new miracles 11
III. Threat Perceptions: A Fearful Continent 14
A. Russia's View: The Threat from the West 14
B. View from the West: A Menace Revealed 16
1. Before the all-out invasion 17
2. After the all-out invasion 18
IV. Fears into Actions? 22
A. Russia: Nuclear Deterrence, a War Economy and Force Expansion 22
1. The nuclear card 22
2. Society, economy and military 23
B. The West: Supporting Ukraine and Bulking Up as the U.S. Retrenches 26
1. Fortifying Ukraine 26
2. Building capacity 29
3. Force posture 31
4. The nuclear dimension 32
V. Europe's Emerging Order 34
A. An Unstable Dynamic 34
B. Encouraging Stability in an Unstable Order: Diplomacy and Deterrence 35
1. Diplomacy 35
2. Deterrence 38
VI. Conclusion 41
Appendix A: About the International Crisis Group 42
Appendix B: Reports and Briefings on Europe and Central Asia since 2022 43
Appendix C: International Crisis Group Board of Trustees 44
