목차
Title page 1
Contents 1
Abstract 5
1. Introduction 6
2. Tariff Shock Database 10
2.1. Tariff News Timeline 11
2.2. Shock Construction 14
3. Tariff Shocks and Exchange Rates, 2018-2020 17
3.1. Average Effects Across All Shocks 18
3.2. Retaliation 20
3.3. Global Events 21
4. Is This Time Different? 24
4.1. Tariff Shocks and Exchange Rates in 2025 25
4.2. Tariff Shocks and Bond Yields: 2018-2020 vs. 2025 25
5. Conclusion 27
References 28
Appendix A. Additional Results 30
Tables 12
Table 1. Timeline of Tariff Events (+1 denotes effective tariff increase, -1 decrease) 12
Figures 7
Figure 1. Exchange-Rate Reactions to Tariff Announcements 7
Figure 2. Effective Tariff-Rate Shocks 2018-2020 17
Figure 3. Effective Tariff-Rate Shocks 2025-Present 18
Figure 4. Average Impact of 2018-2020 Tariff Events on Exchange Rates 20
Figure 5. Exchange-Rate Impacts of 2018-2020 Tariff Events Conditional On Retaliation 22
Figure 6. Exchange-Rate Impacts of 2018-2020 Global Tariff Events Conditional On Retaliation 23
Figure 7. Impact of 2025 Tariff Events on Exchange Rates 25
Figure 8. 2- & 10-Year Bond Yields and 2018-2020 Global Tariff Events Conditional on Retaliation 26
Figure 9. Impact of 2025 Tariff Events on 2-year and 10-year Bond Yields 27
Appendix Figures 30
Figure A.1. Average Impact of 2018-2020 Global Tariff Events on Exchange Rates 30
