목차
Title page 1
Contents 5
Acknowledgments 14
Executive Summary 15
Importance: Transforming 40 percent of global industrial output for sustainable growth and the energy transition 17
Methodology: Unpacking industrial decarbonization strategies and global best practices 19
Technical Pathways: Decarbonization potential, cost-effectiveness and trade-offs 22
Implementation Challenges: Energy, finance, technology, and jobs 29
The Policy Package 34
The World Bank Playbook: Operationalizing country and regional actions 49
1. Introduction 51
The role of industry in the region's economic development and the energy transition 53
The emissions impact of the region's industrial sector 55
Industrial energy use in key emerging economies in the region 56
Barriers to mitigating industrial emissions in emerging economies of the region 58
2. Methodology 63
Scope of analysis 64
Data sources 67
Sensitivity analysis 68
Technology tiers 69
3. Modeling Results 78
Energy use 79
Emissions 89
Costs 94
Sensitivity analysis 107
4. Case Studies of International Industrial Decarbonization 109
Case study 1. Bottom-up decarbonization of India's medium-sized steel producers 111
Case study 2. Northern Sweden's green industrial hub 116
Case study 3. Full-scale zero-carbon cement in Norway 122
Case study 4. Zero-carbon industrial parks in China 126
Case study 5. From fertilizer to fuel-the dual role of ammonia in clean hydrogen adoption 127
5. Recommendations 131
Policies for the first steps in industrial decarbonization: Tiers 1 and 2a 133
Policies for later-stage industrial decarbonization dependent on electricity: Tiers 2b, 4a, and 4b 138
Policies to support carbon capture and use or storage: Tier 3 142
Policies to level the price of fossil fuels and clean energy 145
Investment strategies to support industrial decarbonization 148
Policy options to ready the workforce for industrial decarbonization 153
6. Deep Dive: Industrial Electrification in China 155
Impacts of electrification tiers on industrial energy use in China 157
Cost-effective electrification technologies 159
Policies to overcome the challenges of high electricity costs 163
The availability of clean electricity for industrial electrification in China 164
Policies to help industrial firms access clean electricity 168
Policies to increase consumption of clean electricity 170
7. Conclusion 173
References 176
Appendix A. Technical Appendix: Supplementary Figures 194
A.1. Energy-related industrial emissions by country in the East Asia and Pacific region 195
A.2. Industrial energy use by subindustry 195
A.3. Change in demand by subindustry 197
A.4. Absolute annual energy and annualized capital expenditures 198
A.5. Composition of Tiers 1, 2a, and 2b 199
A.6. Sectoral analysis: Cement 200
A.7. Sectoral analysis: Iron and Steel 201
Appendix B. Industrial Use of Demand-Side Resources 202
B.1. Demand-side resources and industrial decarbonization 203
B.2. Industrial demand-side resources 206
B.3. International experience with industrial demand-side resources 210
B.4. Policy recommendations and possible financing opportunities 218
Appendix C. Policy Recommendations for Electrification of Industrial Heating: Focus on Heat Pumps and Financing Mechanisms 222
C.1. Innovative business models 223
C.2. Reducing capital cost 226
C.3. Reducing installation cost 228
Appendix D. Scenario Input Data and Assumptions 230
D.1. Selected input data and assumptions by country 231
D.2. China non-feedstock industrial energy use in 2022 (PJ) 235
D.3. Indonesia non-feedstock industrial energy use in 2022 (PJ) 236
D.4. Viet Nam non-feedstock industrial energy use in 2022 (PJ) 237
List of Abbreviations 238
Tables 10
TABLE ES.1. The Six-Tier Approach: Strategies for industrial decarbonization based on cost-effectiveness and technological readiness 20
TABLE ES.2. The industrial decarbonization policy package for East Asia 35
TABLE 1.1. Industrial statistics for the East Asian region versus the world average in 2023 52
TABLE 3.1. Percent reductions in emissions by technological tier relative to the BAU scenario in China, Indonesia, and Viet Nam 91
TABLE 3.2. Annual abatement cost of each technological tier (in US$/tCO₂) in China, Indonesia, and Viet Nam 104
TABLE 4.1. India's Green Steel Taxonomy 111
TABLE 4.2. Comparison of annual capacity and emission intensity: Kalyani Group and top Indian steel producers 112
TABLE 4.3. Swedish public sector investment instruments for green steel projects 119
TABLE 4.4. Financing structure of Strega 119
TABLE 5.1. Comparison of carbon pricing systems 146
Figures 10
FIGURE ES.1. Industrial sector energy use by fuel for China, Indonesia, and Viet Nam shows fossil fuel dependence 18
FIGURE ES.2. Industry decarbonization technical pathways: Abatement potential and abatement cost per tonne of CO₂ 22
FIGURE ES.3. Breakeven carbon pricing and electricity cost combinations in China, Indonesia, and Viet Nam 28
FIGURE ES.4. CO₂ emissions from industry and from electricity purchased by industry 30
FIGURE ES.5. Capital investment needed per tier in China, Indonesia, and Viet Nam to reach net-zero 32
FIGURE 1.1. Energy-related CO₂ emissions in the East Asian region by country, 2022 56
FIGURE 1.2. Industrial energy use by fuel (top) and by subsector (bottom) in key emerging economies of the region, 2022 57
FIGURE 2.1. Anticipated percent changes in product demand in China by industrial subsector 71
FIGURE 3.1. Annual industrial sector final energy use in China (across intervention tiers) 79
FIGURE 3.2. Cumulative annual industrial energy use in China by energy type 80
FIGURE 3.3. Industrial sector electricity demand in China 81
FIGURE 3.4. Annual industrial energy use in China by subindustry 81
FIGURE 3.5. Annual chemicals industry feedstock uses in China by energy type 82
FIGURE 3.6. Annual industrial final energy use in Indonesia 83
FIGURE 3.7. Annual industrial energy use in Indonesia by energy type 83
FIGURE 3.8. Industrial sector electricity demand in Indonesia 84
FIGURE 3.9. Annual industrial energy use in Indonesia by subindustry 85
FIGURE 3.10. Annual chemicals industry feedstock uses in Indonesia by energy type 85
FIGURE 3.11. Annual industrial sector final energy use in Viet Nam across intervention tiers 86
FIGURE 3.12. Annual industrial sector final energy use in Viet Nam by energy type 87
FIGURE 3.13. Industrial sector electricity demand in Viet Nam 87
FIGURE 3.14. Annual industrial energy use in Viet Nam by subindustry 88
FIGURE 3.15. Annual chemicals industry feedstock uses in Viet Nam by energy type 88
FIGURE 3.16. Annual CO₂ emissions in China, Indonesia, and Viet Nam by energy type 89
FIGURE 3.17. CO₂ emissions from the industrial sector and from electricity purchased by industry 93
FIGURE 3.18. Annual industrial energy expenditures in China by technology tier 95
FIGURE 3.19. Annual industrial energy expenditures in China by energy type 95
FIGURE 3.20. Annual industrial energy expenditures in Indonesia by energy type 96
FIGURE 3.21. Annual industrial energy expenditures in Indonesia by energy type 96
FIGURE 3.22. Annual industrial energy expenditures in Viet Nam by energy type 97
FIGURE 3.23. Annual industrial energy expenditures in Viet Nam by energy type 97
FIGURE 3.24. Capital equipment investment needs in China by intervention tier 98
FIGURE 3.25. Capital equipment investment needs in China by subindustry and by intervention tier 99
FIGURE 3.26. Required capital investment per unit of GHG abatement in China 99
FIGURE 3.27. Capital equipment investment needs in Indonesia by technology tier 100
FIGURE 3.28. Capital equipment investment needs in Indonesia by subindustry and by technology tier 101
FIGURE 3.29. Required capital investment per unit of GHG abatement in Indonesia by technology tier 101
FIGURE 3.30. Capital equipment investment needs in Viet Nam by technology tier 102
FIGURE 3.31. Capital equipment investment needs in Viet Nam by technology tier 103
FIGURE 3.32. Required capital investment per unit of GHG abatement in Viet Nam by technology tier 103
FIGURE 3.33. Energy costs and annualized capital investment needs per unit of annual abatement in China 105
FIGURE 3.34. Energy costs and annualized capital investment needs per unit of annual abatement in Indonesia 106
FIGURE 3.35. Energy costs and annualized capital investment needs per unit of annual abatement in Viet Nam 106
FIGURE 3.36. Breakeven carbon pricing and electricity cost combinations in China, Indonesia, and Viet Nam 108
FIGURE 4.1. Heidelberg Materials CCS project in Brevik, Norway 122
FIGURE 6.1. Industrial heat energy demand and temperature requirements in China by manufacturing subsector, 2021 156
FIGURE 6.2. Process heat energy demand by temperature grade in China's manufacturing sector 157
FIGURE 6.3. Capital investment needs for electrification in China (Tiers 2a and 2b), by industrial subsector 158
FIGURE 6.4. China's electricity installed capacity by source, 2000-24 164
FIGURE 6.5. China's electricity production by source, 2000-24 165
FIGURE 6.6. Share of nonfossil power generation in China, 2000-24 166
FIGURE 6.7. Total solar and wind installed capacity in China, 2000-24 166
Boxes 13
BOX 4.1. Power sector policy milestone enables 100 percent renewable energy: India's Green Energy Open Access (GEOA) Rules, 2022 114
BOX 4.2. From abundance to bottleneck: How infrastructure shapes the pace and scale of industrial decarbonization in northern Sweden 120
Appendix Tables 10
TABLE B.1. Demand response types and applications 205
TABLE B.2. A comparative analysis of demand response, demand flexibility, and virtual power plants 221
Appendix Figures 12
FIGURE A.1. Energy-related industrial emissions in the East Asia Pacific Region by country in 2022 195
FIGURE A.2. Annual industrial energy use by subindustry and energy type in China in 2022 195
FIGURE A.3. Annual industrial energy use by subindustry and energy type in Indonesia in 2022 196
FIGURE A.4. Annual industrial energy use by subindustry and energy type in Viet Nam in 2022 196
FIGURE A.5. Anticipated natural changes in product demand and potential changes that could be achieved through material efficiency and... 197
FIGURE A.6. Anticipated natural changes in product demand and potential changes that could be achieved through material efficiency and... 197
FIGURE A.7. Absolute annual energy costs and annualized capital investment needs in China 198
FIGURE A.8. Absolute annual energy costs and annualized capital investment needs in Indonesia 198
FIGURE A.9. Absolute annual energy costs and annualized capital investment needs in Viet Nam 198
FIGURE A.10. Composition of energy use reductions from Tiers 1, 2a, and 2b in China 199
FIGURE A.11. Composition of energy use reductions from Tiers 1, 2a, and 2b in Indonesia 199
FIGURE A.12. Composition of energy use reductions from Tiers 1, 2a, and 2b in Viet Nam 199
FIGURE A.13. Cumulative CAPEX investment needs for the cement industry in China 200
FIGURE A.14. Cumulative CAPEX investment needs for the cement industry in Indonesia 200
FIGURE A.15. Cumulative CAPEX investment needs for the cement industry in Viet Nam 200
FIGURE A.16. Cumulative CAPEX investment needs for the iron and steel industry in China 201
FIGURE A.17. Cumulative CAPEX investment needs for the iron and steel industry in Indonesia 201
FIGURE A.18. Cumulative CAPEX investment needs for the iron and steel industry in Viet Nam 201
FIGURE B.1. How demand-side resources can adjust load 204
FIGURE B.2. Major industrial demand response and flexibility sources 207
FIGURE C.1. Overview of how HaaS business models can provide heat services and structure support for both capital and operating costs 225
Appendix Boxes 13
BOX B.1. Demand flexibility at the Alcoa Warrick Smelter 208
BOX B.2. Demand flexibility actions in the European Union 214
