목차
Title page 1
Contents 1
Abstract 3
1. Introduction 4
2. Background 9
2.1. Migration Patterns in Poland 9
2.2. Polish Political Landscape 12
3. Data and Descriptive Analysis 14
3.1. Data 14
3.2. Descriptive Analysis 16
4. Empirical Strategy 18
5. Estimation Results 22
5.1. Main Analysis 22
5.2. Robustness Checks 24
6. Mechanisms 27
6.1. Heterogeneity by County Characteristics 27
6.2. Other Effects of the Refugee Inflow 29
7. Conclusions 32
References 35
Supplementary Material 51
Tables 47
Table 1. Summary statistics for Polish counties 47
Table 2. IV estimation results, political groupings 48
Table 3. Robustness checks, alternative instruments 49
Table 4. IV estimation results on political groupings, heterogeneity by county 50
Figures 42
Figure 1. Ukrainians in Poland 42
Figure 2. Ukrainian migrants in Poland, by county 43
Figure 3. Vote share political parties during parliamentary elections, 2005-2023 44
Figure 4. Winning parties by county 2011-2023 45
Figure 5. Impact of Ukrainian refugee inflow on local socio-economic outcomes 46
Figure 6. Impact of Ukrainian refugee inflow on local public finances 46
Appendix Tables 60
Table A1. Timeline on main events and migration policies in Poland 60
Table A2. Political parties in Poland, 2015-2023 61
Table A3. Political parties in Poland, 2005-2011 63
Table A4. Polish political parties during 2019 elections, Manifesto Project 65
Table A5. Polish political parties during 2019 elections, Manifesto Project 65
Table A6. Balancing tests on local pre-war demographic and economic county characteristics - 2015-2019 trends 66
Table A7. IV estimation results, political parties 68
Table A8. IV estimation results, electoral statistics 69
Table A9. Reduced-form estimation results, political groupings 70
Table A10. Comparison of OLS and IV estimation results, all political groupings 71
Table A11. Robustness checks, alternative specifications 72
Table A12. Robustness checks, alternative inference 73
Table A13. First-stage placebo tests 73
Table A14. Second-stage placebo tests 74
Table A15. Timeline of key events in Polish history 79
Appendix Figures 52
Figure A1. Immigrants by nationality in Poland, with and without Ukrainians 52
Figure A2. Ukrainian and Belarusian migrants in Poland, by county 52
Figure A3. Timeline of recent elections in Poland 53
Figure A4. Change in Polish election results from 2011 to 2023 parliamentary elections 54
Figure A5. Relevance of the instrumental variable 55
Figure A6. Leave-on-out robustness check 55
Figure A7. Impact of Ukrainian refugee inflow on local socio-economic outcomes, detailed 56
Figure A8. Impact of Ukrainian refugee inflow on local expenditures, detailed 57
Figure A9. Polish political attitudes, by year and region 58
Figure A10. Historic borders of Poland 77
Figure A11. Resettlement of the Ukrainian and Belarusian population from eastern Polish territories 78
