목차
Title page 1
Contents 1
SUMMARY 2
I. SUMMARY 3
II. GLOBAL ECONOMY 6
1. Global economy expands modestly 7
2. Decline in global inflation continues 20
3. Opportunities and risks 24
III. GERMANY 27
1. Real economy: industrial weakness persists despite expansionary fiscal policy 30
2. Inflation close to target 51
3. Stabilisation on the labour market 52
4. Expansionary fiscal policy from 2026 onwards 55
5. Potential output: Demographics dampen, capital formation provides only slight support 58
6. Opportunities and risks 62
APPENDIX 63
REFERENCES 71
Tables 19
TABLE 1. Gross domestic product and consumer prices of selected countries 19
TABLE 2. Forecast assumptions 25
TABLE 3. Comparison of the spring and the autumn forecasts for the year 2025 37
TABLE 4. Key economic indicators for Germany 50
TABLE 5. Labour market in Germany 54
TABLE 6. Discretionary fiscal policy measures 56
TABLE 7. Gross domestic product and consumer prices in the euro area 63
TABLE 8. Components of the forecast for GDP growth 63
TABLE 9. Contributions to growth of gross domestic product by expenditure components 64
TABLE 10. Key figures of the national accounts 65
TABLE 11. General government revenues and expenditures and selected fiscal indicators 69
Charts 3
CHART 1. Economic outlook for Germany and Europe 3
CHART 2. Determining factors for the forecast 4
CHART 3. Global growth and economic barometer 7
CHART 4. Global trade in goods and world industrial production 8
CHART 5. Exchange rates and export prices 9
CHART 6. Average effective tariff rate on US imports 12
CHART 7. Consumer price inflation in the USA and China 14
CHART 8. Gross domestic product and industrial production in the euro area 16
CHART 9. Real-time and leading indicators for GDP growth in the euro area 17
CHART 10. Energy and commodity prices 21
CHART 11. Monetary policy eased, financing conditions have hardly improved recently 23
CHART 12. Revision of gross domestic product data by the Federal Statistical Office 28
CHART 13. Characteristic development of GDP and its components during recession periods 29
CHART 14. Production is weak across the entire manufacturing sector in Germany 31
CHART 15. Economic indicators for manufacturing 33
CHART 16. Gross value added (GVA) in the service sector and the manufacturing sector 34
CHART 17. Expected economic development of the German economy 35
CHART 18. Consumption indicators in Germany 38
CHART 19. Determinants of private consumption 40
CHART 20. Indicators for the construction sector 43
CHART 21. Econometric model forecasts of government investment in construction 45
CHART 22. Investment indicators for Germany 46
CHART 23. Foreign trade indicators 48
CHART 24. Expected development of the external environment 49
CHART 25. Inflation in Germany 51
CHART 26. Development of the labour market 53
CHART 27. Development of public finances 57
CHART 28. Growth contributions of components to potential output and labour volume 58
CHART 29. Updated assumptions on the population development 59
CHART 30. Productivity Indicators 60
CHART 31. Productivity indicators: selected determinants of productivity growth 61
CHART 32. Components of German GDP 67
CHART 33. Forecast intervals for gross domestic product and consumer price growth in the euro area 68
CHART 34. Forecast intervals for gross domestic product and consumer price growth in Germany 68
CHART 35. Characteristic development of monthly indicators during recession periods 70
Boxes 13
BOX 1. Focus: The major economies of the US and China 13
BOX 2. Focus: Economic development in France, Italy, Spain and the Netherlands 15
BOX 3. Forecast assumptions 25
BOX 4. Background: Revision of the national accounts 28
BOX 5. Background: Dating the business cycle peak before the energy crisis in Germany worsened 29
BOX 6. Background: Revision of the GDP forecast for 2025 36
BOX 7. SVR analysis: Development of private consumption since 2024 40
BOX 8. SVR analysis: Model-based forecast of real government gross fixed capital formation in construction and price trends in public construction 44
BOX 9. Focus: Productivity development in Germany 60
