From root causes to shared gains : migration policy for low-income countries in a labor-scarce world

Title page 1

Contents 1

Abstract 3

1. The new global landscape for migration 5

1.1. A world where labor is scarce 5

1.2. A world where skilled emigration can bring offsetting gains 10

1.3. A world where more development brings more migration 14

1.4. A world where migration, in turn, sparks long-term development 17

2. Policy Gaps: What to Do Next 22

2.1. Regional free movement 24

2.2. New international destinations 26

2.3. Urbanization policy is also international migration policy 28

2.4. Training systems rebuilt for a mobile world 29

2.5. Restructuring aid partnerships for bilaterally-regulated migration 31

2.6. Beware magical thinking 34

3. Research Gaps: What to Learn Next 35

3.1. What will be the effect of rapid technological change on migration pressure? 36

3.2. What are the effects of a shrinking workforce, and a shrinking economy, on productivity? 39

3.3. The potential and pitfalls of new destinations 40

3.4. What are the binding constraints on mobility, and how to alleviate them? 41

3.5. Macroeconomic effects of Regional Free Movement, including under climate change 42

3.6. What shapes the short- and long-term benefit of remittances? 43

3.7. What is the macro potential for Global Skill Partnerships? 44

3.8. At what point does development come to deter further migration, in different countries? 45

4. Conclusion 46

References 46

Tables 23

Table 1. From Root Causes to Shared Gains: A New Migration Paradigm 23

Table 2. TFP growth required to maintain GDP growth under zero migration after 2025 37

Figures 6

Figure 1. THE GLOBAL DRVIDE BETWEEN WORKER ABUNDANCE AND WORKER DECLINE: Increase (green) or decrease (red) in the number... 6

Figure 2. NATIVE WORKERS ARE DISAPPEARING FROM AGING MIDDLE INCOME COUNTRIES: Change in the number of workers per elderly... 8

Figure 3. EMIGRATION RISES WITH DEVELOPMENT: Emigration versus origin-country income per capita, pooled countries and years 1960-2019 15

Figure 4. NEW MIGRANT DESTINATION? Many countries experiencing large, negative shocks to the native workforce have relatively few immigrants now 27

Figure 5. FERTILITY IN KOREA, FORECASTS VS. REALITY: Korean childbearing in UN predictions (1968-2072) and in fact (1950-2022) 34