Title page 1

Contents 2

Executive summary 4

① Economic risks outlook 5

Asset valuations 6

Debt and spending 8

② Growth, policy and geoeconomic outlook 13

Trade and investment outlook 13

Regional growth and policy expectations 15

③ AI adoption outlook 21

Regional adoption 21

Industry adoption 22

Firm-level adoption 24

Contributors 26

Acknowledgements 26

Endnotes 29

Figures 5

Figure 1. The global economic outlook 5

Figure 2. Asset developments 6

Figure 3. Breadth of impact 7

Figure 4. Timeframe of impact 8

Figure 5. Macroeconomic risks 9

Figure 6. Public debt management strategies 10

Figure 7. Government spending priorities 11

Figure 8. Trade policy 13

Figure 9. Trade outcomes 14

Figure 10. Investment 14

Figure 11. Growth 15

Figure 12. Growth impact of AI investment 16

Figure 13. Inflation 17

Figure 14. Monetary policy 18

Figure 15. Fiscal policy 19

Figure 16. AI adoption: geographies 22

Figure 17. AI adoption: industries 23

Figure 18. AI adoption: firms 24

Figure 19. AI jobs impact 25