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About This Publication iii
Summary v
Figures and Tables xiii
CHAPTER 1 Introduction 1
The Argument 3
The Gateway to a New AI Era 5
Adding to a Wave of Change: AI and Major Trends 6
AI and the Future of Human Agency 7
Scope and Approach 9
The Organizational Scheme: A Framework for Understanding National Competitive Advantage 10
Coming to Grips with a Historical Transformation 13
CHAPTER 2 The Artificial Intelligence Revolution: Definitions and Prospects 17
Defining AI 17
A Swarm Rather Than a Singularity 18
Defining Artificial General Intelligence 20
The Possibility of an Escalating Feedback Loop 22
The Essential Priority: AI Alignment 23
AI’s Prospects: A Great Deal Is About to Change 25
Beyond the Incremental Effects: A More Radical Future 30
CHAPTER 3 The Character of the Coming Artificial Intelligence Revolution: Three Scenarios 39
The Surprising Deliberateness—and Social Cost—of the Industrial Revolution 40
The Coming AI Revolution: Three Scenarios 41
The Implications for Strategy 48
CHAPTER 4 Lessons from Previous Technological Revolutions 55
The Foundations of Competitive Advantage in a Technological Revolution 55
The Costs and Risks of Technological Revolutions 57
Technological Revolutions and the Nature of Competitive Advantage 59
Summary: The Lessons of History 61
CHAPTER 5 National Ambition and Willpower 67
Defining National Ambition and Willpower 68
A Jolt to National Self-Confidence 69
The Capacity for National Projects 70
How It Could Go Wrong: Indolence, Hubris, and Overreach 70
Summary: Rolling the Dice on Human Motivation 73
CHAPTER 6 Unified National Identity 77
AI and National Identity: Baseline Implications 78
A Society Remade 79
AI Actors Manipulating the Social Scene 82
The Risks of AI-Empowered Fragmentation 83
Overall Implications: National Solidarity in the Crosshairs 86
CHAPTER 7 Shared Opportunity 91
Defining Shared Opportunity and Its Value 92
The Enlightenment Ideal and the AI Future 93
Making AI Serve Human Agency Will Take a Profound Act of Collective Will 94
Risks: Fading Incentives to Seize Opportunities 96
The Peril of Algorithmic Tyranny 98
AI, the Job Killer 98
The Risk of an Oligarchy of Opportunity 100
Summary: The Potential for a New Enlightenment or a Stifling Oligarchy 101
CHAPTER 8 An Active State 107
Defining the Characteristic of an Active State 108
A Leading Imperative: Good Governance 109
AI and the Active State 111
Planning and Decisionmaking: AI’s Benefits and Limitations 113
Hollowing Out Rather Than Empowering or Empowering Too Well 114
Summary: Using AI to Revitalize the Active State 116
CHAPTER 9 Effective Institutions 119
Defining the Characteristic of Effective Institutions 120
AI and Institutions: Efficient Organizations 122
AI and Organizational Fairness 123
A Leading Danger: Supercharging Bureaucracy and Arbitrary Rule by Algorithms 124
AI and the Social Role of Institutions: The Problem of Social Capital 126
Summary: Real Potential, Unclear Prospects 128
CHAPTER 10 A Learning and Adapting Society 131
Defining the Characteristic of a Learning and Adapting Society 132
AI as Fuel for Creativity and Learning 133
AI, Experimentation, and Adapting to a New Era 134
The Risks: Our Epistemic Crisis and AI 135
Killing the Impulse to Learn: Cognitive Off-Loading 136
Summary: The Benefits Are Likely—But the Risks Are Profound 138
CHAPTER 11 Competitive Diversity and Pluralism 141
Defining the Characteristic of Competitive Diversity and Pluralism 142
AI and Diversity 143
AI and Pluralism 144
A Leading Risk: AI-Fueled Social Divisions 145
Summary: Here Come Some Volatile Feedback Loops 146
CHAPTER 12 A Strategy for National Advantage in the Artificial Intelligence Era 149
The Route to Competitive Advantage: Fostering Individual and Collective Agency in the AI Era 151
Essential Components of a U.S. AI Strategy 152
Steps to Nourish the Societal Sources of Competitive Advantage: A Campaign of National Renewal 154
Summary: A Daunting—But Essential—Agenda 167
Abbreviations 171
References 173
About the Author 195
