Introduction 2

The strategic setting: Autocrats on the rise 4

The threat: A formidable military backed by a resilient ‘war economy’ 5

The state of the Russian military 5

Russian politics presents no threat to Putin’s control 7

The Russian economy has rebounded from sanctions pressure 7

Russian hybrid operations seek to ‘fracture’ Europe 7

Russian objectives 8

The risk: NATO is not ready 9

What NATO could look like—from the status quo to full US withdrawal 11

Target 1: Russia occupies the Svalbard archipelago 12

Recommendations 14

Target 2: Russia occupies the Åland islands 15

Recommendations 16

Target 3: Russia seizes territory in eastern Estonia 17

Recommendations 17

Target 4: Russian forces seize Gotland 19

Recommendations 20

Target 5: Kaliningrad 21

Recommendations 23

Observations 25

Summary 26

Endnotes 27