About This Report iii

Summary v

Figures and Tables x

CHAPTER 1 Introduction 1

Research Questions and Approach 2

Contributions 3

Organization of This Report 3

CHAPTER 2 Model Derivation and Discussion 5

Related Literature 5

Production Technology with Perfect Substitution 6

Dynamics of Technology and Deployment Gaps 9

Capital Accumulation Regimes 11

Stability Analysis 13

FMAs and DEAs 15

CHAPTER 3 Parameterization and Empirical Setup 18

Monte Carlo Methodology 22

CHAPTER 4 Discussion of Results 24

Archetypes 24

Overview of Simulation Outcomes 26

Summary Results 28

Analysis of DEA-100s 29

Discussion and Robustness 34

CHAPTER 5 Conclusion and Strategy Implications 35

DEA Reframed 35

What Drives Decisiveness? 36

Implications for AGI Strategy 38

The Broader Contribution 39

APPENDIX A Stability Conditions 40

General Definitions and State Space 40

Case 1: Fast-Capital Adjustment and Nonbinding Hardware 41

Case 2: Fast-Capital Adjustment and Binding Hardware 41

Case 3: Slow-Capital Adjustment and Nonbinding Hardware 42

Case 4: Slow-Capital Adjustment and Binding Hardware 42

APPENDIX B Imperfect Substitution Between Human and AGI Labor 44

Income Gap Dynamics Under Imperfect Substitution 44

Implications for Interpretation 45

APPENDIX C Assumptions, Limitations, and Interpretation 47

Perfect Substitution Between Human and AI Labor 47

Single-Good Economy with Homogeneous Technology 48

Linear Dynamics and Constant Parameters 48

Exogenous Savings Rates 48

Hardware as a Unidimensional Constraint 49

Competitive Markets and Efficient Resource Allocation 49

International Trade and Technology Transfer 49

AGI Alignment and Control 50

Abbreviations 51

References 52

About the Author 55