Title page 1

Contents 12

Acknowledgement 5

Executive summary 6

Introduction 13

The rise of autonomous warfare 16

Unmanned platforms 17

Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) 17

Unmanned Surface Vehicles (USVs) 22

Unmanned Ground Vehicles (UGVs) 25

Electronic warfare 28

Artificial Intelligence 30

Muddling through battlefield transparency: the C4ISR revolution 37

Space-based technologies for the Ukrainian battlefield 37

SATCOM and the Internet of the battlefield 37

PNT and GNSS navigation 42

Role of space-based ISR 42

Combat software and the march towards integration 43

Weapons systems software 44

Situational awareness and information management 46

Toward a combat management architecture? 48

Deep fighting: air and missile defense and deep precision strikes 50

Air and missile defense 50

C-UAV evolution 51

Deep rear UAVs and C-UAV evolution 53

The Salvo competition: an economic approach to air defense 59

Deep strike capabilities 63

Asymmetric deep strikes: from occasional to sustained campaign 63

Conventional deep strikes: Ukraine's missile options, constraints, and strategic trade-offs 65

Conclusion 70

Tables 20

Table 1. UAV evolution 2022 vs 2025 of contact line drones 20

Table 2. Illustrative outcomes and technologies 24

Table 3. Main UGV Types deployed in Ukraine 27

Charts 19

Chart 1. The growth of FPV production in Ukraine 19

Chart 2. Estimated Starlink terminals deployed to Ukraine since 2022 39

Chart 3. Estimated unit cost of selected Russian UAVs 55

Chart 4. Growth in Russian use of Shahed drones against Ukraine 59