Introduction 1

Moscow’s Dual-Track Africa Playbook: Transactional Security Deals in the Sahel, Enduring Political Capital in Southern Africa 7

The Drivers and Limits of Russia’s Appeal in West Africa and the Sahel 12

Russia’s Geopolitical Hedging in the Sahel and West Africa 13

Russia Risks Falling into the Sahel Security Trap 23

Battle for the Narrative: Africa in the Crosshairs of Russian Influence 28

Russia Eyes Expanded Role in Coastal West African States 33