International Debt Report 2025

(2025 국제 부채 보고서)

목차

Title page 1


Contents 6


Foreword 11


Acknowledgments 14


Key Takeaways 15


Abbreviations 18


PART 1. Overview 20


1. Analysis of External Debt Stock and Debt Flows as of End-2024 21


Trends in External Debt, 2014-24 21


Trends in Domestic Debt, 2014-24 27


Debt Servicing Burdens of LMICs, 2014-24 33


Trends in External Debt Flows, 2014-24 38


Trends in Net Transfers on External Debt, 2014-24 42


Key Debt Indicators, 2014-24 44


Trends in External Debt of IDA-Eligible Countries, 2014-24 49


Regional Perspectives 56


Debt Restructuring, 2024 74


2. Debt Dynamics: Policy Implications and Future Outlook 81


Debt Dynamics: Policy Implications 81


Current Debt-Growth Dynamics 81


Growth Outlook in Low- and Middle-Income Countries 84


Domestic Debt in Low-Income Countries: Recent Developments 98


High Debt, High Fragility: Interlinked Risks to Development 103


3. Advancing Debt Transparency 112


Introduction 112


Borrower Countries 113


Progress in Direct Public Debt Disclosure 113


Policy Reforms and Institutionalization 114


Reporting to the World Bank Debtor Reporting System 115


Reconciling Borrower and Creditor Data 116


Measuring Progress: Data Revisions and Transparency Outcomes 120


Improved Debt Management Capacity, Standards, and Methodology 124


Next Steps: Institutionalizing Debt Transparency Gains 125


Notes 126


References 127


PART 2. Aggregate and Country Tables 129


ALL LOW- AND MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES 130


EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC 131


EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA 132


LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN 133


MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA, AFGHANISTAN, AND PAKISTAN 134


SOUTH ASIA 135


SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA 136


AFGHANISTAN 137


ALBANIA 138


ALGERIA 139


ANGOLA 140


ARGENTINA 141


ARMENIA 142


AZERBAIJAN 143


BANGLADESH 144


BELARUS 145


BELIZE 146


BENIN 147


BHUTAN 148


BOLIVIA 149


BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA 150


BOTSWANA 151


BRAZIL 152


BURKINA FASO 153


BURUNDI 154


CABO VERDE 155


CAMBODIA 156


CAMEROON 157


CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC 158


CHAD 159


CHINA 160


COLOMBIA 161


COMOROS 162


CONGO, DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF 163


CONGO, REPUBLIC OF 164


CÔTE D'IVOIRE 165


DJIBOUTI 166


DOMINICA 167


DOMINICAN REPUBLIC 168


ECUADOR 169


EGYPT, ARAB REPUBLIC OF 170


EL SALVADOR 171


EQUATORIAL GUINEA 172


ERITREA 173


ESWATINI 174


ETHIOPIA 175


FIJI 176


GABON 177


GAMBIA, THE 178


GEORGIA 179


GHANA 180


GRENADA 181


GUATEMALA 182


GUINEA 183


GUINEA-BISSAU 184


GUYANA 185


HAITI 186


HONDURAS 187


INDIA 188


INDONESIA 189


IRAN, ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF 190


IRAQ 191


JAMAICA 192


JORDAN 193


KAZAKHSTAN 194


KENYA 195


KOSOVO 196


KYRGYZ REPUBLIC 197


LAO PEOPLE'S DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC 198


LEBANON 199


LESOTHO 200


LIBERIA 201


MADAGASCAR 202


MALAWI 203


MALDIVES 204


MALI 205


MAURITANIA 206


MAURITIUS 207


MEXICO 208


MOLDOVA 209


MONGOLIA 210


MONTENEGRO 211


MOROCCO 212


MOZAMBIQUE 213


MYANMAR 214


NEPAL 215


NICARAGUA 216


NIGER 217


NIGERIA 218


NORTH MACEDONIA 219


PAKISTAN 220


PAPUA NEW GUINEA 221


PARAGUAY 222


PERU 223


PHILIPPINES 224


RWANDA 225


SAMOA 226


SÃO TOMÉ AND PRÍNCIPE 227


SENEGAL 228


SERBIA 229


SIERRA LEONE 230


SOLOMON ISLANDS 231


SOMALIA, FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF 232


SOUTH AFRICA 233


SRI LANKA 234


ST. LUCIA 235


ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES 236


SUDAN 237


SURINAME 238


SYRIAN ARAB REPUBLIC 239


TAJIKISTAN 240


TANZANIA 241


THAILAND 242


TIMOR-LESTE 243


TOGO 244


TONGA 245


TUNISIA 246


TÜRKIYE 247


TURKMENISTAN 248


UGANDA 249


UKRAINE 250


UZBEKISTAN 251


VANUATU 252


VIET NAM 253


YEMEN, REPUBLIC OF 254


ZAMBIA 255


ZIMBABWE 256


APPENDIX 257


Data Sources 258


Country Groups 260


Regional Groups 260


Income Groups 261


Glossary 262


Tables 10


Table 1.1. External Debt Stock of Low- and Middle-Income Countries, 2014-24 21


Table 1.2. Net Debt Inflows to IDA-Eligible Countries, 2014-24 51


Table 1.3. External Debt Stock and Net Financial Flows and Transfers, East Asia and Pacific, 2014-24 56


Table 1.4. External Debt Stock and Net Financial Flows and Transfers, Europe and Central Asia, 2014-24 59


Table 1.5. External Debt Stock and Net Financial Flows and Transfers, Latin America and the Caribbean, 2014-24 62


Table 1.6. External Debt Stock and Net Financial Flows and Transfers, Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, 2014-24 65


Table 1.7. External Debt Stock and Net Financial Flows and Transfers, South Asia, 2014-24 68


Table 1.8. External Debt Stock and Net Financial Flows and Transfers, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014-24 71


Figures 8


Figure 1.1. Creditor Composition of Long-Term External Debt Stock in Low- and Middle-Income Countries, 1970-2024 23


Figure 1.2. Change in Domestic and External Government Debt, Selected Low- and Middle-Income Countries, 2023-24 29


Figure 1.3. Change in External vs. Domestic Government Debt, Selected Low- and Middle-Income Countries, 2023-24 32


Figure 1.4. Low- and Middle-Income Countries' Interest Payments on External Debt, by Debtor Type, 2014-24 34


Figure 1.5. Average Terms on New External Debt Commitments for Low- and Middle-Income Countries, by Creditor Type, 2014-24 35


Figure 1.6. Interest Payments on Public and Publicly Guaranteed Debt for Low- and Middle-Income Countries, by Type of Interest Rate, 2014-24 36


Figure 1.7. Interest Payments on Public and Publicly Guaranteed Debt of Low- and Middle-Income Countries, by Region and Creditor Type, 2022-24 37


Figure 1.8. Net Debt Inflows, by Maturity, Low- and Middle-Income Countries, 2014-24 38


Figure 1.9. Long-Term External Debt Flows to Low- and Middle-Income Countries, by Borrower Type, 2022-24 39


Figure 1.10. Bond Flows to Low- and Middle-Income Countries, by Borrower Type, 2023-24 40


Figure 1.11. Long-Term Net Transfers on External Debt in Low-and Middle-Income Countries, by Debtor Type, 2014-24 42


Figure 1.12. Long-Term Net Transfers on Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt in Low- and Middle-Income Countries, by Creditor Type, 2014-24 43


Figure 1.13. External Debt-to-GNI and Interest Payments-to-GNI Ratios for Low- and Middle-Income Countries and IDA-Eligible Countries, 2014-24 45


Figure 1.14. Creditor Composition of IDA-Eligible Countries' Long-Term Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt during Crises, 2014-24 50


Figure 1.15. Net Flows to IDA-Eligible Countries, by Region and Creditor Type, 2024 52


Figure 1.16. Average Terms on New External Debt Commitments for IDA-Eligible Countries, by Creditor Type, 2014-24 53


Figure 1.17. Net Transfers on Public and Publicly Guaranteed Debt in IDA-Eligible Countries, by Creditor Type, 2022-24 55


Figure 1.18. Net Debt Flows for East Asia and Pacific Countries (Excluding China), by Creditor Type, 2022-24 57


Figure 1.19. Net Long-Term Debt Inflows from Private Creditors to Select East Asia and Pacific Countries, 2023 and 2024 58


Figure 1.20. Net Debt Flows to Europe and Central Asia, by Creditor Type, 2014-24 60


Figure 1.21. Bond Flows to Europe and Central Asia, by Borrower Type, 2023 and 2024 61


Figure 1.22. Net Debt Flows to Latin America and the Caribbean, by Creditor Type, 2014-24 63


Figure 1.23. Bond Flows to Latin America and the Caribbean, by Borrower Type, 2023 and 2024 64


Figure 1.24. Net Debt Flows to the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, by Creditor Type, 2014-24 67


Figure 1.25. Bond Flows to the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, by Borrower Type, 2023 and 2024 67


Figure 1.26. Net Inflows of Long-Term Public and Publicly Guaranteed and Private Nonguaranteed External Debt to South Asia, by Borrower Type, 2022-24 69


Figure 1.27. External Debt Stocks as a Share of Exports of Goods, Services, and Primary Income and GNI, South Asia, 2023 and 2024 70


Figure 1.28. Net Debt Flows to Sub-Saharan Africa (Excluding South Africa), by Creditor Type, 2022-24 72


Figure 1.29. Net Transfers to Sub-Saharan Africa (Excluding South Africa), by Borrower Type, 2014-24 73


Figure 2.1. GDP Growth and Year-on-Year Percentage Growth in External Debt Stock, by Region, 2015-24 82


Figure 2.2. Correlation between GDP Growth and External Debt Stock Year-on-Year Percentage Growth, by Region, 2015-19 vs. 2020-24 83


Figure 2.3. Growth in Low- and Middle-Income Countries, 2022-27 85


Figure 2.4. Inflation in Low- and Middle-Income Countries, 2024-27 87


Figure 2.5. Policy Rates in Low- and Middle-Income Countries, 2022-25 88


Figure 2.6. Current Account Balance and Foreign Direct Investment, Low- and Middle-Income Countries, 2000-24 90


Figure 2.7. Government Revenues as a Share of GDP, 2010s and 2020s 93


Figure 2.8. Economic Policy Uncertainty, 2000-09, 2010-19, and 2020-25 93


Figure 2.9. Share of Domestic Public Debt in Low-Income Country Debt Sustainability Framework Countries, 2014 and 2024 99


Figure 2.10. Composition of Public Domestic Debt in Low-Income Country Debt Sustainability Framework Countries, 2024 100


Figure 2.11. Distribution of Real Interest Rate on Domestic Debt, 2024 101


Figure 2.12. Low-Income Debt Sustainability Framework Countries with Claims Exceeding 25 Percent of Balance Sheet, by Type of Investor, 2014 vs. 2023 103


Figure 2.13. Food and Nutrition Security, by Country Debt Level 106


Figure 2.14. Risk and Vulnerability, by Country Debt Level 108


Figure 2.15. Institutional Capacity, by Country Debt Level 110


Figure 3.1. Public Debt Disclosures by IDA-Eligible Countries, Access and Coverage, 2020 and 2024 114


Figure 3.2. Share of Countries Improving or Backsliding on Debt Reporting Heat Map, by Number of Debt Transparency PPAs Implemented, 2021-24 115


Figure 3.3. Debtor Reporting System Reporting Timetable, 2019-24 116


Figure 3.4. Debt Stock of Newly Matched Loans between End-2021 and End-2023, G-7/Paris Club Data-Sharing Exercise 118


Figure 3.5. Asymmetries between Creditor and Borrower Claims on Debt Outstanding Position at End-2023 119


Figure 3.6. Ex Post Revision of Commitments, Low- and Middle-Income Countries (Excluding China), 2014-24 122


Boxes 8


Box 1.1. External Debt Data: Concepts, Sources, and Coverage 24


Box 1.2. World Bank Income and Lending Classifications Used in International Debt Report 2025 26


Box 1.3. The World Bank's Role in Developing Domestic Financial Markets 30


Box 1.4. Debt-to-GDP and Debt-to-GNI Ratios, and Accounts Rebasing 45


Box 1.5. Côte d'Ivoire: World Bank-Supported Debt-for-Development Swap 79


Box 2.1. Trade Volatility and Debt Sustainability in Low-Income Countries 94


Box 3.1. Guinea-Bissau: A Commitment to Debt Transparency 120


Box Figures 8


Figure B1.2.1. Number of Low- and Middle-Income Countries Covered in International Debt Report 2025, by FY2026 Income and Lending Groups 27


Figure B1.4.1. Variation in GDP levels 48


Figure B2.1.1. Export Earnings and External Debt Stock, Low-Income Countries, 2005-24 94


Figure B2.1.2. Ratio of Debt Service to Exports, 2014 vs. 2024 95


Figure B2.1.3. Five-Year Rolling Volatility of Exports Earnings, 2009-24 96


Figure B2.1.4. Export Volatility in Low-Income Countries, by Debt Risk Category, 2014-24 97


Figure B3.1.1. External Debt Stock: Comparison of DRS and Debt Bulletins, 2023 and 2024 121


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International Debt Report 2025

(2025 국제 부채 보고서)

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