Executive Summary 5

CHAPTER ONE

Introduction 7

Developing deterrence 8

The ABC of ISR 9

Risk reduction 11

Detected, not dissuaded 11

The prelude 12

Alliance reliance 14

Chinese expansion, literally 15

Inside or outside 16

Collaborative and almost here 16

Autonomous, after a fashion 18

Conclusion 18

CHAPTER TWO

Uninhabited Europe 23

The MALE realm 23

The French connection 25

Common malaise 27

German MALEs 27

Delay upon delay 28

MALE pattern failure 29

Uninhabited combat mass 30

Demonstrate to vacillate 31

A di erent kind of uninhabited 32

Swedish and Turkish outlook 34

MALE-related problems 34

Conclusion 35

CHAPTER THREE

The Uninhabited War in Ukraine 39

Initial stages 39

Small advantage 41

Personal view 42

One-way journey 43

Loitering munitions 45

Autonomous activity 46

Integrating ISR 47

War in the electromagnetic spectrum 48

Uninhabited building 49

Precedent-setting? 51

Conclusion 53

CHAPTER FOUR

Uninhabited Middle East 59

Regional UAV development 59

Regional UAV purchases 66

CCAs over the Middle East? 68

UAV operations 69

Conclusion 75

CHAPTER FIVE

Uninhabited Indo-Paci c 81

Policy and strategy 81

Persistent land and maritime ISR 83

Precision strike 89

Manned–unmanned teaming 95

Conclusion 98

Conclusion 109