Title page 1

Contents 1

Executive Summary 2

The Successful Economic and Fiscal Record of the TCJA 4

Effects of the Small Business and Investment Tax Cuts 7

Effects of the OBBB's Direct Tax Cuts for Workers and Families 8

A Deeper Dive into the Fiscal Impact of Trump Economic Policies Anchored by the OBBB 11

Conclusions 15

Supplemental Methodological Appendix 16

References 23

Figures 4

Figure 1. Debt-to-GDP Ratio, 2025-2034 4

Figure 2. Key Expiring Provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act 5

Figure 3-1. The U.S. Economy Outperformed Forecasts: Real GDP 5

Figure 3-2. The U.S. Economy Outperformed Forecasts: Unemployment 6

Figure 4. Average Housing Starts per Million People, 1983-2024 10

Figure 5-1. Primary Deficit Impact of Trump Economic Policies (Relative to CBO Current Law Tax Hike Baseline) 12

Figure 5-2. Primary Deficit Impact of Trump Economic Policies (Relative to Current Policy Baseline) 13

Figure 6. Debt-to-GDP in 2034 14