LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS 7

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 9

INTRODUCTION 13

1 EU–US AGRI-FOOD TRADE 18

2 ANALYSIS OF THE POSSIBLE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF THE US TARIFFS ON THE EU AGRI-FOOD SECTOR 22

2.1 The scale of tariff changes 22

2.2 Tariffs and the price pass-through 23

2.3 Tariff impact on EU exports to the US 25

2.4 Additional considerations 29

3 CASE STUDIES 32

3.1 Case Study 1: Live bovine animals and the beef sector in the European Union 37

3.2 Case Study 2: Pig meat sector in the European Union 44

3.3 Case Study 3: Veneto Region (Italy) – vulnerability of the wine sector to US Tariffs 51

3.4 Case Study 4: Champagne-Ardenne (France) – vulnerability of the Champagne sector to US tariffs 57

3.5 Case Study 5: Zuid-Holland (The Netherlands) – vulnerability of plants, flowers and bulbs to US tariffs 63

3.6 Case Study 6: Andalusia (Spain) – vulnerability of the olive oil and olives sector to US tariffs 69

3.7 Case Study 7: Nordrhein-Westfalen (Germany) – vulnerability of the chocolate and cocoa products sector to US tariffs 76

3.8 Key takeaways 81

4 MITIGATION STRATEGIES TO SUPPORT THE MOST VULNERABLE SECTORS AND STAKEHOLDERS 85

5 RECOMMENDATIONS FOR THE EU, LOCAL AND REGIONAL LEVELS 89

REFERENCES 94