Title page 1

Contents 24

Summary 1

I. Introduction 1

II. The drafting of the federal budget for 2026 2

Implementation and amendment of the 2025 budget 3

Prospects for military spending 5

A revised forecast and another amendment to the 2025 budget 6

The draft three-year budget for 2026-28 8

III. Military spending in 2025 and in the federal budget for 2026-28 10

Social spending on the military 13

Other war-related spending 13

IV. Reasons underlying reduced military spending in 2026 18

New leadership in the Ministry of Defence 18

Changes in armament procurement 19

V. Conclusions: Prospects for 2026 22

Tables 24

Table 1. Revised economic forecast of the Russian Ministry of Economic Development for 2025-28, basic scenario, September 2025 6

Table 2. The main parameters of the amendments to the 2025 Russian federal budget 7

Table 3. Amendments to the 2025 Russian federal budget, by budget chapter 8

Table 4. The main parameters of the amended Russian federal budget for 2025 and the draft budget for 2026-28 9

Table 5. Spending in the draft Russian federal budget for 2026-28, by budget chapter 9

Table 6. The Russian federal budget for 2026 and the original draft budget 10

Table 7. Total military expenditure by Russia, 2025-28 12

Table 8. The trend of total military spending by Russia, 2015-28 14

Table 9. The trend of spending on civil 'Social policy' in the Russian federal budget, 2019-28 14

Table 10. Budget allocations to the Russian-occupied regions of Ukraine, 2025 and 2026-28 15

Table 11. Funding of civil defence, Russian Ministry of Civil Defence, Emergencies and Disaster Relief, 2021-28 16