Foreword vii

Acknowledgements viii

Abbreviations ix

Executive summary x

1. INTRODUCTION 1

1.1 Objectives 1

1.2 Key concepts 1

1.3 Scope of the analysis 3

2. METEOROLOGY OF EXTREME HEAT 5

2.1 Human-induced climate change and natural climate variability 5

2.2 Heatwaves 6

2.3 Marine heatwaves 8

2.4 Droughts 9

2.5 Compound events 11

3. EXTREME HEAT AND AGRICULTURE 13

3.1 An overview of extreme heat impact pathways for agriculture 13

3.2 Crops 17

3.2.1 Vulnerabilities to extreme hea 17

3.2.2 Observed impacts of extreme heat 18

3.2.3 Projected impacts of extreme heat 20

3.3 Livestock 22 3.3.1 Vulnerabilities to extreme heat 22

3.3.2 Observed impacts of extreme heat 24

3.3.3 Projected impacts of extreme heat 25

3.4 Fisheries and aquaculture 26

3.4.1 Vulnerabilities to extreme heat 26

3.4.2 Observed impacts of extreme heat 28

3.4.3 Projected impacts of extreme heat 33

3.5 Forests, plantations and orchards 33

3.5.1 Vulnerabilities to extreme heat 33

3.5.2 Observed impacts of extreme heat 35

3.5.3 Projected impacts of extreme heat 40

3.6 Agricultural workers 43

3.6.1 Vulnerabilities to extreme heat 43

3.6.2 Observed impacts of extreme heat 44

3.6.3 Projected impacts of extreme heat 45

4. ADAPTATION OF AGRICULTURE TO EXTREME HEAT 51 4.1 Types of technical adaptation options 51

4.2 Timescales of technical adaptation options 52

4.3 Barriers to adaptation and synergies with mitigation 54

4.4 Extreme heat risk governance across agricultural subsectors and beyond 56

5. CASE STUDY: COMPOUND IMPACTS OF EXTREME HEAT IN BRAZIL 59

5.1 Introduction 59

5.2 Data and methodology 59

5.3 Results 60

6. CONCLUSION 70