Title page 1

Contents 3

ABSTRACT 2

I/1. INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY FINDINGS 4

II/2. BACKGROUND AND LITERATURE 6

III. DATA AND DETAILED FINDINGS 7

III.1. Data 7

III.1.1. Approach 8

III.2. Findings 9

III.2.1. Trade in goods and services - Balance of Payments statistics 9

III.2.2. Merchandise trade - Aggregate view 12

III.2.3. Services Trade 38

III.2.4. Trade in Value Added 42

IV/V. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION 45

ANNEX 47

BIBLIOGRAPHY 47

Figures 10

Figure 1. Trade balance of Goods and Services, 1976-2024 10

Figure 2. Trade balance of Goods and Services, 1976-2024 10

Figure 3. The top eight countries contributing to the global trade balance, goods and services (average absolute value 1975-2024) 12

Figure 4. Merchandise trade net exports by region 1986, 2005, and 2024 13

Figure 5. Merchandise trade net exports by region 1986, 2005, and 2024 14

Figure 6. Sectors accounting for the trade deficit, 1986 & 2024 15

Figure 7. Sectors accounting for the trade surplus, 1986 & 2024 16

Figure 8. North America: Mineral fuels have moved from the largest source of deficit to surplus 17

Figure 9. Europe: Pharmaceuticals have replaced machinery as the largest surplus sector 18

Figure 10. Asia: The manufacturing surplus and the deficit in fuels have both grown 19

Figure 11. South America: Food and agriculture are expanding as a source of surplus 20

Figure 12. Africa: Mineral fuels drive the evolution of the trade balance 21

Figure 13. Top 10 Economy-sector pairs accounting for the trade deficit 1986 & 2024 22

Figure 14. Top 10 Economy-sector pairs accounting for the trade surplus 1986 & 2024 23

Figure 15. Vehicles: Asia's surplus has remained broadly consistent but lower than the 1980s 24

Figure 16. Manufactured Articles: Asia continues to be the main surplus region 25

Figure 17. Electronics: Asia is the main surplus region with all others in deficit 26

Figure 18. Food and agriculture: South America has consistently had the largest surpluses 26

Figure 19. Seed oils have overtaken coffee in South America's Food & Agriculture balance 27

Figure 20. Pharmaceuticals: Europe's surplus has continued to grow 28

Figure 21. Asia: China has replaced Japan as the largest source of surplus 29

Figure 22. Europe: Germany is still the largest net exporter but with a reduced share 29

Figure 23. South America: Brazil is the largest surplus country as Venezuela has declined 30

Figure 24. Africa: Major oil and gas exporters shape Africa's trade balance 31

Figure 25. The United States has moved from the largest deficit to a surplus in mineral fuels 32

Figure 26. Japan and Germany share of motor vehicles trade continues to decline 33

Figure 27. China has emerged since the mid-2000 to become the largest exporter of machinery 33

Figure 28. China has emerged as the main global supplier of manufactured articles 34

Figure 29. China has surpassed Japan's surplus position in electronics 35

Figure 30. Germany's share global chemicals trade has declined as new producers emerge 36

Figure 31. China has become an increasingly important exporter of textiles and clothing 36

Figure 32. Brazil's surplus in food and agriculture has grown to be the world's largest 37

Figure 33. Pharmaceuticals are increasingly traded with European countries the main suppliers 38

Figure 34. Services trade: Surpluses have grown in Europe and North America 39

Figure 35. Services: Europe surpluses stand out as a share of regional GDP 39

Figure 36. Europe and North America's net export position is consistent through 2005-2024 40

Figure 37. Transport contributing most to services trade deficits, with intellectual property and travel shares growing the fastest 41

Figure 38. Information, telecommunications and computer services contributing most to services trade surpluses 42

Figure 39. Merchandise trade: Accounting for value chains reduces the deficit in North America 43

Figure 40. Services trade: The North American surplus further expands with value chains 44

Figure 41. Accounting for value added leads to reduced surpluses in electronics 44