Title page 1

Contents 1

Abstract 2

1. Introduction 4

2. Data and Working Variables 8

2.1. Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) 8

2.2. Rainfall Data 11

3. Empirical Strategy 13

4. Results and Discussion 16

4.1. Effect of Drought Shocks on Intended Fertility 17

4.2. Robustness Checks 20

4.3. Impact Heterogeneity 22

4.4. Potential Mechanisms 24

4.5. Why Does Being Born Unintended Matter to the Child? 26

4.6. Why Does Unintended Pregnancy Matter to the Mothers? 27

5. Conclusion 28

References 31

Appendix A. Supplementary Materials 41

Table 1. Survey Years and Total Observations by Country 10

Table 2. Descriptive Statistics of Key Variables 13

Table 3. Impact of Drought Shocks on Intended Fertility 19

Table 4. Drought shocks and Intended Fertility using alternative percentiles 20

Table 5. Drought and Water Surplus Shocks on Intended Fertility - Clusters as Unit of Analysis 21

Table 6. Drought Shocks and Intended Fertility by Birth Order 23

Table 7. Drought Shocks and Intended Fertility by Maternal Education Level 24

Table 8. Drought Intensity and Sexual Behavior and Attitudes 25

Table 9. Association between Intended Fertility and Health and Maternal Care Indicators 27

Table 10. Association between unintended fertility and women's labor market outcomes 28

Figure 1. Geographic Distribution of Survey Clusters across Countries 11

Table A1. Placebo Regression 41

Table A2. Impact of Drought on Pregnancy Outcomes: Evaluating Recall Bias 42