Title page 1

Contents 1

Abstract 2

1. Introduction 5

2. Background 10

3. Identification 12

4. Data and summary statistics 14

5. Results 16

5.1. Firm responses 16

5.2. Event study results 19

5.3. Heterogeneity analysis 21

5.3.1. Firm size 21

5.3.2. Financial constraints 23

6. Conclusion 25

References 28

Appendix 36

Table 1. Summary statistics 16

Table 2. Impact on exports value 30

Table 3. Impact on number of products and destinations 30

Table 4. Impact on prices 30

Table 5. CBAM exposure and green investment input sourcing 30

Table 6. Heterogeneity by Firm Size: Export Responses 31

Table 7. Heterogeneity by firm size: Green investment input sourcing 31

Table 8. Heterogeneity by Financial Constraints: Export Responses 32

Table 9. Heterogeneity by Financial Constraints: Green Investment Input Sourcing 32

Figure 1. Implementation of CBAM 10

Figure 2. Exports of CBAM-covered products to EU countries 32

Figure 3. Exports of CBAM-covered products to non-EU countries 33

Figure 4. Number of CBAM products exported to EU countries 33

Figure 5. Number of CBAM products exported to non-EU countries 33

Figure 6. Number of EU countries CBAM-covered products sold 34

Figure 7. Number of non-EU countries CBAM-covered products sold 34

Figure 8. Export unit value of CBAM products to EU countries 34

Figure 9. Export unit value of CBAM products to non-EU countries 35

Figure 10. Imported green investment inputs 35

Figure 11. Domestic green investment inputs 35

Table A.1. CBAM exposure and green investment input sourcing (alternative sample) 36

Figure A.1. Exports of CBAM-covered products to EU countries, different reference (2019m6) period 36