Acknowledgements 3

Executive summary 6

1 Introduction 8

2 Analytical framework: Openness across the AI stack 9

3 Economic benefits of AI openness 12

Micro-level effects: Firm-level gains in cost efficiency and performance from AI openness 12

Quality-to-price ratio of open- vs closed-weight models 12

Open-weight models are increasingly competitive at the AI economic frontier 13

Break-even analysis: When self‑hosting open‑weight models becomes cost-effective 14

Macro-level effects: Indicative impacts of open‑source AI code on economic growth 16

Main finding 17

Interpreting the results 18

4 AI openness as a driver of stronger and more resilient national AI ecosystems 20

Local value creation and downstream innovation 20

Technological sovereignty and strategic autonomy 22

Sector-specific adaptation 22

5 Conclusion 24

Annex A. Break-even analysis assumptions 25

Annex B. Methodology for macro-level analysis 27

References 33