Title page 1

Contents 5

Acknowledgements 4

Executive summary 7

1. Why supporting local job-to-job mobility matters 9

Challenges and opportunities that accompany job-to-job mobility in local labour markets 10

2. The green transition in local labour markets 12

Places differ in the number of jobs at risk from the green transition 13

Green-task jobs are expected to grow, but rising labour shortages indicate difficulties in finding the right talent 16

Jobs vulnerable to the green transition and emerging green-task jobs may not be located in the same region 18

3. Occupational proximity: a tool to identify potential job-to-job mobility 21

Occupations vulnerable to the green transition have many transferable skills, but there remain skill gaps with green-task occupations 23

A skills-based job proximity measure 26

The skills-based measure of occupation proximity is a good predictor for actual job-to-job mobility in Italy, the United Kingdom and the United States 29

4. Local job-to-job mobility in the green transition 32

Local labour markets ultimately determine whether job alternatives exist: the case of the United Kingdom 33

5. What skills gaps need to be bridged for green job-to-job mobility? 37

Transitioning out of vulnerable occupations requires re-skilling, with the largest gaps found in "soft" and technical skills relative to other groups of skills 37

Classes of missing skills are similar across regions but vary across countries 39

Conclusions 41

References 42

Notes 45

Annex A. Skills classification 46

Table 1. Examples of occupations vulnerable to the green transition and their closest non-vulnerable alternatives 28

Table 2. Examples of green-task occupations and their closest alternatives 29

Figure 1. Regional employment shares in high emission-intensive manufacturing sectors 13

Figure 2. Shares of vulnerable jobs vary more within than across European countries 15

Figure 3. Jobs vulnerable to the green transition have declined across most European countries 15

Figure 4. Green-task jobs account for over a fifth of jobs in Europe on average, with cross-country and regional differences 17

Figure 5. Green-task jobs are 25% to 30% tighter than other jobs on average in Italy, the United Kingdom and the United States 18

Figure 6. Common skills between vulnerable and green-task occupations 24

Figure 7. Green-task job postings cite on average a higher number of skills compared with postings for occupations vulnerable to the green transition 25

Figure 8. After accounting for education level, green-task jobs can be considered more skill intensive relative to all jobs 26

Figure 9. The proximity between two occupations can be quantified by the overlap in the skills required 27

Figure 10. A skills-based proximity index is a good predictor of observed job changes 30

Figure 11. Skills proximity measure a better predictor of job-to-job mobility in larger labour markets 31

Figure 12. In most regions, vulnerable jobs align most closely with non-green occupations 32

Figure 13. Across UK regions, most workers in vulnerable occupations see insufficient vacancies to transition to other work requiring similar skills 33

Figure 14. In the United Kingdom, there is on average one open vacancy in alternative employment for every four vulnerable jobs, but in some... 34

Figure 15. Number and diversity of alternative employment varies greatly across occupations 35

Figure 16. In the United Kingdom, all green-task jobs in demand could be filled by workers currently in other occupations without significant training 36

Figure 17. Soft skills and technical skills are among the most frequent missing skills for occupations vulnerable to the green transition across countries 38

Figure 18. Soft skills and technical skills are among the most common missing skills for jobs vulnerable to the green transition across countries and regions 39

Figure 19. Most missing skills are mentioned in several regions 40

Boxes 6

Box 1. Addressing regional labour market imbalances in Austria by removing barriers to regional mobility 10

Box 2. High emission-intensive manufacturing is regionally concentrated 12

Box 3. How can jobs vulnerable to the green transition be defined? 14

Box 4. How are green-task jobs defined? 16

Box 5. RES-SKILL EU (2020-2023), SECOVE (2022-2026) 19

Box 6. Skills per occupation using data from online job postings 21

Box 7. Skills-based labour market matching in practice 23

Box 8. Do differences in required education explain the higher skill requirements for green intensive occupations? 25

Box 9. Occupation pair proximity based on weighted skill similarity 27

Box 10. Occupational proximity in vulnerable and green-task occupations 28

Box 11. Occupational skill proximity predicts observed job-to-job mobility 29

Box 12. The predictive power of the skills-based proximity measure tends to be better for larger regional labour markets 30

Box 13. Alternative occupations for vulnerable workers 34

Box 14. Hauts-de-France region, France: Douvrin Battery Training Centre 38

Table A A.1. Classification of skills 46