Introduction: China in the Pacific and Indian oceans 2

Chapter 1: China’s regional ambitions 2

1.1 China’s military diplomacy in the Pacific and Indian oceans 2

1.2: China’s security ambitions under President Xi 5

1.3: China’s tools of influence 6

1.4: China’s actions of influence 12

Chapter 2: China in the Southwest Pacific 14

2.1: Mapping China’s security engagement 14

2.2: Trends and analysis 14

2.3: How is the Pacific responding? 16

Chapter 3: China in the Indian Ocean 17

3.1: Mapping China’s security engagement 17

3.2: Trends and analysis 17

3.3 China’s growing presence 18

3.4: How is the Indian Ocean region responding? 19

Chapter 4: China, Australia and New Zealand 21

4.1: Mapping China’s security engagement 21

4.2: Trends and analysis 21

Chapter 5: War games—China’s future in the Indo-Pacific 24

5.1: China’s future in the Southwest Pacific 24

5.2: China’s future in the Indian Ocean 27

5.3: China’s future around Australia and New Zealand 30

Chapter 6: Implications, threats and opportunities 33

6.1: Implications of China’s expanding presence 33

6.2: Worst case scenario—a Chinese base 34

6.3: Opportunities 35

Acronyms and abbreviations 38

Notes 38