1. Introduction 2

2. Basic set-up 5

2.1 Demographic indicators 6

2.1.1 Age at first birth 7

2.1.2 Age at first marriage 9

2.1.3 Fertility rate 10

2.1.4 Life expectancy 11

2.1.5 Healthy life span 12

2.1.6 Age at transition from childhood-care 13

2.2 Linking the generations 15

3. Adjusting for the intensity of care 17

3.1 Dependent types 16

3.2 Availability of intergenerational help 18

3.2.1 Mandatory retirement age 19

3.3 Availability of school 19

3.3.1 Starting age of mandatory schooling 20

3.3.2 Starting age of childcare 20

3.3.3 School duration 21

4. Care Simulation Model 21

4.1 Measuring care responsibilities of individuals 24

4.2 Gains and deficits from intergenerational care 26

4.3 Distribution of care and overlapping care needs across generations 27

4.4 Non-care years 29

5. Potential market size for childcare and eldercare 30

5.1 Estimating potential market size for childcare 34

5.1.1 Potential private market size for childcare 35

5.2 Estimating potential market size for eldercare 36

6. Potential job creation in childcare and eldercare 37

6.1 Potential job creation for childcare 38

6.2 Potential job creation for eldercare 41

7. Results 42

8. Conclusions and caveats 48

References 50