THE ISSUE 1

INTRODUCTION 1

KEY TAKEAWAYS 2

THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND ITS CHOKEPOINTS 2

THE POTENTIAL FOR DISRUPTIONS 4

CHINA’S TAIWAN STRAIT DILEMMA 7
THE STAKES FOR U.S. ALLIES AND PARTNERS 7

AUSTRALIA, NEW ZEALAND, AND THEIR NEIGHBORS 9

THE GLOBAL SOUTH 10

CONCLUSION 11

APPENDIX I: METHODOLOGY 13

ENDNOTES 14