Title page 1

Contents 3

Abstract 6

Executive summary 7

Policy context 7

Main findings 7

Key conclusions 8

Quick guide 9

1. Introduction 10

1.1. Challenges for democracy in the EU 11

1.2. The JRC's EU Policy Lab foresight process 11

2. Methodology 13

2.1. Dialectical waves of change 13

2.2. The foresight process 14

3. Exploration of possible developments of emerging issues 21

3.1. Challenge: Citizens' support for and engagement in democracy 21

3.1.1. Emerging issue 1: Shifting values and lifestyles among youth 21

3.1.2. Emerging issue 2: Diversification of social groups represented 24

3.1.3. Emerging issue 3: Interactions between public authorities and citizens 26

3.2. Challenge: Quality and resilience of democratic processes and institutions 28

3.2.1. Emerging issue 1: Extensions of citizenship 28

3.2.2. Emerging issue 2: Increasing popularity of technocrats 30

3.2.3. Emerging issue 3: Liquid democracy supported by AI 32

3.3. Challenge: The impact of AI on democracy 34

3.3.1. Emerging issue 1: AI as a facilitator of political deliberations 34

3.3.2. Emerging issue: AI changing the politicians-citizens interface of elections 36

3.3.3. Emerging issue 3: Human agency over AI and algorithms 38

4. Four scenarios 40

4.1. Introduction 40

4.2. Scenario 1: AI-facilitated direct democracy 42

4.2.1. How did we get there? 42

4.2.2. A closer look at decision-making in this future 43

4.2.3. A day in the life of... Tomáš Novák 46

4.2.4. Key insights from scenario 1 47

4.3. Scenario 2: Citizen Pushback 48

4.3.1. How did we get here? 48

4.3.2. A closer look at decision-making in this future 49

4.3.3. A day in the life of... Zee Fischer 52

4.3.4. Key insights from scenario 2 53

4.4. Scenario 3: Technocratic Governance Overreach 54

4.4.1. How did we get here? 54

4.4.2. A closer look at decision-making in this future 55

4.4.3. A day in the life of... Maria Lopez 58

4.4.4. Key insights from scenario 3 59

4.5. Scenario 4: Big Tech Power Grab 60

4.5.1. How did we get here? 60

4.5.2. A closer look at decision-making in this future 61

4.5.3. A day in the life of... Nyasha Dube 64

4.5.4. Key insights from scenario 4 65

5. Conclusions 66

5.1. The role of technology in democratic transformation 67

5.2. Concentration of power and its implications 67

5.3. Balancing efficiency with citizens agency 67

5.4. Emergence of alternative governance models 68

5.5. Use of data in governance systems 68

5.6. Trust in information ecosystems 69

5.7. Perceived representation and authentic participation 69

5.8. Final reflection 70

References 71

6. Annex 1. Full list of emerging issues and their signs of new 79

6.1. Challenge 1: Citizen support for democracy 79

6.1.1. Emerging issue 1: Shifting values, approaches and lifestyles among youth 79

6.1.2. Emerging issue 2: Diversification of social groups to be represented 84

6.1.3. Emerging issue 3: New ways authorities could interact with people 87

6.2. Challenge 2: Quality and resilience of democratic institutions 89

6.2.1. Emerging issue 1: Extensions of citizenship 89

6.2.2. Emerging issue 2: Increasing appointments and popularity of technocrats in the EU 90

6.2.3. Emerging issue 3: Fluid democracy, supported by AI 92

6.3. Challenge 3: impact of AI on democracy 93

6.3.1. Emerging issue 1: AI applications to facilitate political interactions, public discourse and consensus-building 93

6.3.2. Emerging issue 2: AI changing the politicians-citizens interface of elections 95

6.3.3. Emerging issue 3: Human agency over AI & algorithm impacts 97

Table 1. Opportunities and risks of shifting values and lifestyles among youth 22

Table 2. Opportunities and risks of diversification of social groups represented 25

Table 3. Opportunities and risks of interactions between public authorities and citizens 27

Table 4. Opportunities and risks of extensions of citizenship 29

Table 5. Opportunities and risks of increasing popularity of technocrats 31

Table 6. Opportunities and risks of liquid democracy supported by AI 33

Table 7. Opportunities and risks of AI as a facilitator of political deliberations 35

Table 8. Opportunities and risks of AI changing the politicians-citizens interface of elections 37

Table 9. Opportunities and risks of human agency over AI and algorithms 39

Figure 1. Overview of the four future scenarios 8

Figure 2. Dialectical waves of change (Dujardin, 2021) 13

Figure 3. Adaptation of Molitor's S-curve (Lum, 2016) 15

Figure 4. Challenges vs. emerging issues 15

Figure 5. Fishbone diagram for pathways and drivers towards most and least preferable outcomes 17

Figure 6. Scenario outlines development process 18

Figure 7. Final scenarios development process 19

Figure 8. Overview of the relations between the scenarios 40

Boxes 76

Box 1. Signs of new for shifting values and lifestyles among youth (Annex 1, 6.1.1) 21

Box 2. Signs of new for diversification of social groups represented (Annex 1, 6.1.2.) 24

Box 3. Signs of new for new interactions between public authorities and citizens (Annex 1, 6.1.3.) 26

Box 4. Signs of new for extensions of citizenship (Annex 1, 6.2.1) 28

Box 5. Signs of new for increasing popularity of technocrats (Annex 1, 6.2.2) 30

Box 6. Signs of new for liquid democracy supported by AI (Annex 1, 6.2.3) 32

Box 7. Signs of new for AI as a facilitator of political deliberations (Annex 1, 6.3.1.) 34

Box 8. Signs of new for AI changing the politicians-citizens interface of elections (Annex 1, 6.3.2.) 36

Box 9. Signs of new for human agency over AI and algorithms (Annex 1, 6.3.3.) 38