Title page 1

Contents 1

Executive summary 1

1. Introduction 4

2. Emissions before and after the Paris Agreement 6

3. Are countries projected to achieve their climate commitments? 7

3.1. Assessing where the countries within the Umbrella, the EU, and the EIG stand 7

3.2. Assessing the current progress of the BASIC group towards its commitments 9

4. What are the implications for net zero? 12

5. Conclusion 12

References 14

Table 1. Only a few countries in the Umbrella, the EU, and EIG are projected to meet their 2030 and 2035 targets 8

Table 2. The BASIC countries show varying levels of alignment with their 2030 commitments 10

Figure 1. Annual emission rates decline in the post-Paris era 6

Figure 2. Negotiating groups rely on after 2030 reductions to achieve net zero by 2050 12