5 Issues and Recommendations

7 The System of International Conflict Management

7 “Standard approach” to conflicts

9 Preconditions and assumptions of previous conflict management

10 Changes in structural conditions

12 More war, less peace: Crisis-ridden escalation

16 Armed Conflicts and Peace Processes in the Horn of Africa

16 Sudan’s Comprehensive Peace Agreement (2005): Model that comes with catch

18 South Sudan: Agreements reached under pressure, transition that never ends

20 Sudan and South Sudan: Falling entry price for the political marketplace

21 Ethiopia: Ceasefire without political process

23 Consequences: How Mediation and Peace Processes Unravel

23 Competitive mediation

25 Authoritarian instrumentalisation of peace agreements

27 Weak monitoring and implementation support

28 An increasingly fragile power structure

30 Conclusions and Recommendations

33 Abbreviations