Table of Contents

1. Introduction 1

1.1. Relevance of the study 1

1.2. Objectives of the study and guiding research questions 1

2. Methodology and Data 3

3. Today: Plant Pests in the European Union 5

3.1. Biological overview: Taxonomic groups of plant pest 5

3.2. Regulatory overview: Legal categories of plant pests 7

3.2.1. EU regulatory pest categories 7

3.2.2. Emerging pests in EU legislation 8

3.3. Pathways of introduction and spread 10

3.3.1. Human-mediated pathways of dispersal 10

3.3.2. Natural pathways of dispersal 12

3.3.3. Other factors that influence dispersal of pests 13

4. Trends: New and emerging pests and scientific approaches to address them 15

4.1. New and emerging plant pests in the EU 15

4.1.1. Identification, assessment and classification 15

4.1.2. Current developments and potential future risks 16

4.2. Impact of new and emerging plant pests 21

4.2.1. Food security impacts 21

4.2.2. Economic impacts 23

4.2.3. Environmental impacts 25

4.3. Trends influencing future plant pests 26

4.3.1. Climate change 26

4.3.2. Globalisation, trade barriers and tourism 27

4.3.3. Trends in agriculture: monoculture and intensive production 29

4.3.4. Trends in funding, regulation and technology 30

4.4. New scientific approaches and technologies 31

4.4.1. Detection approaches 32

4.4.2. Survey approaches 34

4.4.3. Management approaches 37

5. EU legislative framework, actors and response mechanisms 40

5.1. EU legislative framework for plant health 40

5.2. EU actors and authorities in plant health governance 43

5.3. Pest surveillance and response mechanisms 44

5.3.1. Surveillance systems 45

5.3.2. Diagnostic system 46

5.3.3. Response mechanisms 46

5.4. Suitability of the current EU plant health governance framework for future shocks 48

6. Future: Medium-long term scenarios for the EU 49

6.1. Key medium-long term trends 49

6.2. Scenarios for 2050 51

6.2.1. Scenario axes from two critical uncertainties for the future 52

6.2.2. Overview of the scenarios 54

6.2.3. Scenario 1: Green Gateways 55

6.2.4. Scenario 2: Green Fortress 56

6.2.5. Scenario 3: Infested Markets 57

6.2.6. Scenario 4: Europe First 59

7. EU Policy options for future scenarios 62

7.1. Strategic directions for EU policies 62

7.1.1. Policy option 1: Pathway-based prevention and strengthened detection and diagnostics63

7.1.2. Policy option 2: Outbreak management and rapid response mechanisms 65

7.1.3. Policy option 3: Advance resilient and diversified production systems 66

7.1.4. Policy option 4: Governance and coordination, innovation and funding mechanisms 67

7.2. Assessment of the policy options 69

7.3. Scenarios, policy options and prioritised policy interventions 71

8. Conclusion 73

9. References 76

Appendix A: Data and resources 83

A.1. Literature review and quantitative data collection 83

A.2. Workshops and interviews 89

A.3. Foresight methods and frameworks 91