Executive Summary  1

Introduction  2

1 NATO deterrence in the Baltic States  4

1.1 Structural limitations of forward presence and tripwire forces  4

1.2 Changing character of war: operational and tactical lessons learned in Ukraine  8

2 Strategic Implications  16

2.1 Eastern Sentry in the Baltic States: The Failure of the Outer Survivability Layers  16

2.2 First-Mover Incentives and the Baltic Deterrence Problem  19

3 Policy implications  22

3.1 Rebalancing Deterrence under Conditions of Persistent Battlefield Transparency  22

4 Conclusions  25

Glossary Definitions and Terminology  26