Contents

Executive Summary 2
Key Findings 4

1 Results 7
 2026 Global Peace Index Rankings 8
 Results 10
 Regional Overview 15
 Improvements and Deteriorations 26

2 Trends 32
 GPI Trends 34
 Domain Trends 35
 Geopolitical Trends: The Rise of the Middle Powers 40

3 Economic Impact of Violence 48
 The Value of Peace in 2025 50
 Trends in the Economic Impact of Violence 52
 Methodology at a Glance 58
 Economic Impact of the Iran War 59

4 How Conflicts Spread 72
 Introduction 74
 Mechanisms of Conflict Spread 76
 The Horn of Africa: Conflict Spread as a Regional System 81
 The Iran War as a Regional Shock 87

5 AI, Conflict, and Peace 88
 Overview 90
 AI in Modern Warfare: Ukraine, Gaza, Iran 91
 Future Warfare Risks 94
 AI Concentration and Governance 96
 AI for Peace 98

6 Appendices 100
 Appendix A: GPI Methodology 101
 Appendix B: GPI Indicator Sources, Definitions & Scoring Criteria 105
 Appendix C: GPI Domain Scores 112

Endnotes 115