Title page 1

Contents 1

Abstract 2

1. Introduction 4

2. Egypt's Public Employment Guarantee Scheme 7

3. Data 10

3.1. Data on Treatment: Secondary Schools Data 10

3.2. Data on Outcomes: Population Census Data 11

3.3. Data on Controls: The 1952-1961 Land Reform 13

3.4. Descriptive Statistics 13

4. Empirical Strategy 15

5. Main Results 18

6. Robustness Checks 27

7. Mechanisms 28

7.1. Labor Supply Response 29

7.2. Labor Demand Response (In Progress) 34

8. Concluding Remarks 34

References 36

Appendix A. Descriptive Statistics 38

Appendix B. Rural Sample Results 40

Appendix C. Additional Results 46

Appendix D. Robustness Checks 53

Appendix E. Female Sample Results 60

Table 1. Summary Statistics - Full Sample 14

Fig. 1. Timeline of the Public Employment Guarantee's Implementation 9

Fig. 2. Number of Secondary Schools per 1,000 Children Aged 15-19 years old 11

Fig. 3. Public Employment Guarantee and Sector of Employment - Urban Male Wage Workers 19

Fig. 4. Public Employment Guarantee and Sector of Employment - Rural Male Wage Workers 20

Fig. 5. Public Employment Guarantee and Industry of Employment - Urban Male Wage Workers 22

Fig. 6. Public Employment Guarantee and Occupation of Employment (White-Collar vs. Blue-Collar) - Urban Male Wage Workers 23

Fig. 7. Public Employment Guarantee and Occupation of Employment (White-Collar vs. Blue-Collar by Skill Level) - Male Wage Workers in Urban Districts 24

Fig. 8. Public Employment Guarantee and Disaggregated Occupation of Employment - Male Wage Workers in Urban Districts 26

Fig. 9. Public Employment Guarantee and Male Secondary or Above Educational Attainment 29

Fig. 10. Public Employment Guarantee and Educational Attainment by Level - Urban Males Who Completed at Least Secondary 30

Fig. 11. Public Employment Guarantee and Sector of Employment - Urban-Born Male Wage Workers in Urban Districts 32

Fig. 12. Public Employment Guarantee and Sector of Employment - Rural-Born Male Wage Workers in Urban Districts 33

Fig. A.1. Distribution of Secondary School Availability in 1959/1960, Urban Male Sample 38

Fig. A.2. Distribution of Secondary School Availability in 1959/1960, Rural Male Sample 39

Fig. B.1. Public Employment Guarantee and Industry of Employment - Rural Male Wage Workers 41

Fig. B.2. Public Employment Guarantee and White-Collar Employment - Rural Male Wage Workers 42

Fig. B.3. Public Employment Guarantee and Occupation of Employment - Rural Male Wage Workers 43

Fig. B.4. Public Employment Guarantee and Disaggregated Occupation - Rural Male Wage Workers 45

Fig. C.1. Public Employment Guarantee and Male Years of Education 46

Fig. C.2. Public Employment Guarantee and Male Labor Force Participation 47

Fig. C.3. Public Employment Guarantee and Male Employment 48

Fig. C.4. Public Employment Guarantee and Male Wage Employment 49

Fig. C.5. Public Employment Guarantee and Industry of Employment - Rural Male Wage Workers 50

Fig. C.6. Public Employment Guarantee and Specific Occupations - Urban Male Wage Workers (1986 Census) 52

Fig. D.1. Public Employment Guarantee and Sector of Employment - Urban Male Wage Workers 53

Fig. D.2. Binned Scatter: Secondary School Supply and Average Change in Sectoral Employment between 1946 and 1941 Birth Cohorts 54

Fig. D.3. Public Employment Guarantee and Sector of Employment - Urban Male Wage Workers - Binary Treatment 55

Fig. D.4. Public Employment Guarantee and Male Wage Workers Sector of Employment in Urban Districts - Quartiles of Secondary Schools 56

Fig. D.5. Public Employment Guarantee Exposure and Male Wage Workers Sector of Employment in Urban Districts - 1951 District-Level Secondary School 57

Fig. D.6. Public Employment Guarantee Exposure and Male Wage Workers Sector of Employment in Urban Districts - Treatment in Neighboring Districts 58

Fig. D.7. Public Employment Guarantee Exposure and Male Wage Workers Sector of Employment in Urban Districts - Controlling for Secondary School Growth 59

Fig. E.1. Female Labor Force Participation 60

Fig. E.2. Public Employment Guarantee and Female Labor Force Participation 60

Fig. E.3. Public Employment Guarantee and Female Wage Employment Among the Employed 61

Fig. E.4. Public Employment Guarantee and Female Wage Workers Sector of Employment in Urban Districts 62

Fig. E.5. Public Employment Guarantee and Female Wage Workers Sector of Employment in Rural Districts 63