LIST OF TABLES, FIGURES, AND BOXES vi

ABBREVIATIONS ix

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS x

FOREWORD xii

PREFACE xiii

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY xv

1 OVERVIEW 1

1.1 Objective and Context 1

1.2 Water as a Global Issue 2

1.3 Water as Infrastructure 2

1.4 Economic and Policy Implications 3

1.5 Opportunities for Multilateral Development Banks 4

2 GLOBAL FRESHWATER AND INFRASTRUCTURE 7

2.1 Freshwater Outside a Safe Operating Space for Humanity: What is the Role of Infrastructure for Restoring Planetary Safety? 7

2.2 The Anatomy of the Global Water Cycle 9

2.3 The Infrastructure Functions of the Global Water Cycle 13

2.4 Ecosystem Services Provided by Freshwater 14

2.5 Navigating Surprises, Tipping Points, and Unintended Consequences 16

2.6 Concluding Remarks 17

3 THE INDIAN SUBCONTINENT AND THE WATER CYCLE 23

3.1 Water as Living Infrastructure: The Subcontinent Mosaic 24

3.2 Rivers, Basins, and the Geography of Water Mismatch 25

3.3 Small Water Bodies, Distributed Storage, and Underground Water 26

3.4 Large Infrastructure and Changing Water Systems 27

3.5 From Project Thinking to Basin Thinking 28

3.6 Ridge to Reef: Rivers, Deltas, and the Ocean Connection 28

3.7 Climate Stress and Cascading Risks 29

3.8 Policy Implications 29

4 FLYING RIVERS 31

4.1 Introduction 31

4.2 A Global Moisture Input-Output Table 32

4.3 Forests and Wetlands as Inland Moisture Pumps 35

5 STRENGTHENING WATER INFRASTRUCTURE FOR RESILIENT AGRICULTURE 39

5.1 Irrigation as a Key Water Infrastructure 40

5.2 Indonesia Irrigation Rehabilitation 40

5.3 Sustainable Models of Solar Irrigation: Lessons Learned from South Asia 46

5.4 Concluding Remarks 47

6 IMPACT OF FLOODS 49

6.1 Introduction: Climate Change and Floods 50

6.2 Impact of Floods on Water Quality Shocks 51

6.3 Methodology and Data 51

6.4 Results: Post-Flood Water Quality Dynamics 54

6.5 The Strong Buffering Role of Forests 57

6.6 Concluding Remarks 58

7 PROTECTING WETLANDS 61

7.1 Introduction 61

7.2 The Ramsar Convention and the Protection of Global Wetlands 62

7.3 Trends in Wetland Health in Ramsar Sites 63

7.4 Impacts of the Ramsar Designation on Wetland Health 64

7.5 Concluding Remarks 68

8 INVESTING UPSTREAM FOR DOWNSTREAM RELIABILITY 73

8.1 Introduction 73

8.2 Empirical Results 74

8.3 Policy Implications 77

8.4 Concluding Remarks 81

9 WATER STRESS AND SOVEREIGN RATINGS 83

9.1 How Water Stress Worsens the Macroeconomic Outlook 83

9.2 The Growing Concern for Rating Decisions 84

9.3 Water Stress in Developing Countries 85

9.4 Implications for Infrastructure Investment and Policy Decisions 86

9.5 Designing a Study to Explore Water Stress and Credit Ratings 87

9.6 Main Findings Across Country Groups 87

9.7 Concluding Remarks 90

10 WATER ENDOWMENTS, VIRTUAL WATER TRADE, AND THE PRICING OF WATER RESOURCES 97

10.1 Virtual Water Trade: Key to Water and Food Security 97

10.2 Trade Pattern One: Which Sector Dominates VWT? 98

10.3 Trade Pattern Two: The Top Countries Exporting and Importing Virtual Water 99

10.4 Trade Pattern Three: Do Water Endowments Determine VWT? 99

10.5 Trade Pattern Four: Does Water Pricing Influence VWT? 103

10.6 Concluding Remarks 106

11 GOVERNING WATER IN THE AGE OF EXTREMES 107

11.1 Global Water Cycle Governance 107

11.2 The Four Dimensions of Water Risks and Governance Implications 109

11.3 The Future of Water Governance: From Risk to Resilience 114

11.4 Conclusion: From Managing Crisis to Building Resilience 117

12 CONCLUSION 121

12.1 Where the Water Flows: Building Systemic Water Resilience 121

12.2 Recommendations 122

APPENDICES 125

Appendix 1: Data and Estimations for Chapter 5 125

Appendix 2: Data and Estimations for Chapter 6 128

Appendix 3: Data and Estimations for Chapter 7 129

Appendix 4: Data and Estimations for Chapter 8 130

Appendix 5: Data and Estimations for Chapter 9 132

Appendix 6: Data and Estimations for Chapter 10 134

REFERENCES 136