LIST OF TABLES, FIGURES AND BOXES  vii

ABBREVIATIONS  x

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS  xi

FOREWORD  xii

PREFACE  xiii

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY  xiv

PART I: SUSTAINING GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS  1

1 OVERVIEW  2

2 TRADE SHOCKS, RESILIENCE AND INFRASTRUCTURE OUTLOOK  7

2.1 International Trade Showed Remarkable Resilience  7

2.2 Trade Infrastructure Was Severely Strained but Resilient and Adaptive  10

2.2.1 Maritime and Port Infrastructure  11

2.2.2 Airborne Trade  12

2.2.3 Rail and Other Infrastructure  14

2.3 Outlook and Infrastructure Remain Uncertain  14

3 PARTICIPATION IN GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS AND INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT  17

3.1 Expansion of GVC Participation Slowed Down across Most Economies  17

3.2 Different Strategies Are Possible for GVC Participation and Economic Growth  19

3.3 GVC Participation Is Correlated with Infrastructure Development  21

3.4 Inadequate ICT Infrastructure Will Become a Major Constraint  24

4 A CHANGING CHINA ECONOMY AND GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS  30

4.1 China Is Moving toward Higher Value-Added GVCs  30

4.2 Infrastructure Development Expedited a Spatially Inclusive Internationalization Process  35

4.3 GVC Success Requires Several Enabling Factors, including Infrastructure and Openness to Foreign Direct Investment  37

4.4 China Is Planning for GVC Integration in the Digital Future  39

4.4.1 Robotics: Preparing for the Aging Population  39

4.4.2 Accelerating Deployment of Digital Infrastructure  40

5 RAISING INDIA'S GLOBAL VALUE CHAIN PARTICIPATION  42

5.1 India's GVC Participation Is Driven by Key Sectors  43

5.2 Closing Regional Infrastructure Gaps Can Boost Global Value Chain Participation and Inclusive Growth  45

5.3 Reinforcing Infrastructure Benefit through Sector Policies  49

5.4 Port Efficiency and Connectivity to Hinterlands Are Critical  50

6 A POLICY FRAMEWORK FOR INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT AND GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS  58

6.1 The Paradigm for Infrastructure Development and GVC Participation Is Evolving  58

6.1.1 Task Nature of GVCs  58

6.1.2 Institutional Support and Soft Infrastructure  59

6.1.3 Trade Policy and Regional Connectivity  59

6.2 Special Economic Zones Are Place-Based Infrastructure Interventions  59

6.2.1 Adding the Institutional Component: Investment Promotion and Local Content Units  60

6.3 Infrastructure Should Be Connected to Industry Development  61

7 SUSTAINING GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS INTO THE FUTURE  64

7.1 Ground Infrastructure Must Be Coupled with Robust Digitization  64

7.2 We Must Prepare for Higher Trade Costs  65

7.3 Greener and Sustainable GVCs Must Be Secured  66

7.3.1 The Role of GVC Lead Firms  68

7.3.2 Green Infrastructure as Place-Based Industrial Policy  68

7.3.3 The Evolving Policy Context of GVCs  69

7.4 Infrastructure Is Key to the Evolving Development Story  69

PART II: MARKET AND COUNTRY WRITE-UPS  72

INFRASTRUCTURE FINANCE MARKET OVERVIEW  74

Decline in Private Sector Transactions in Asia, but a Bright Spot for Information and Communication Technology  74

Continued Shift from Loans to Bond Financing  77

Robust Brownfield Infrastructure Sector Foreign Direct Investment into Asia  79

Project Bankability Could Require Greater Downside Protection Post Pandemic  80

COUNTRY WRITE-UPS  81

Bangladesh  82

China  85

India  88

Indonesia  91

Pakistan  94

Philippines  97

Russia  99

Turkey  102

APPENDIX: RESOURCE PERSONS  105

REFERENCES  106