Disclaimer  2

Abstract  3

Acknowledgements  4

Key messages  8

1 Introduction  9

2 How does the demographic composition of sectors shift?  11

Data and Methodology  12

Descriptives  13

Results  15

3 How do individuals move into, out of, and between jobs?  18

Data and Methodology  19

Descriptives  19

Results  20

4 How do labour market effects of services trade propagate at the regional level?  24

Data and Methodology  24

Descriptives  25

Results  27

5 How do job gains in tradable services multiply into local jobs in non-tradable sectors?  30

Data and Methodology  31

Descriptives  32

Results  34

6 Conclusion  39

Annex A. Labour force survey data  41

Annex B. Trade exposure measurement details  43

Annex C. Sector and occupation categories  46

Annex D. Regression specification details  47

Annex E. Additional descriptive graphs  49

Annex F. Additional results  53

Annex G. Census and employer-employee microdata  57

Annex H. Defining tradable services  59

Annex I. Regression specification details: Job multipliers  62

References  64

Notes  73