About This Paper  iii

Summary  v

Figures and Tables  ix

CHAPTER 1

Introduction  1

CHAPTER 2

Value and Limitations of Scenario Planning and Crowdsourced Forecasting  3

Strategic Foresight and Scenario Planning  3

Crowdsourced Forecasting  7

Comparative Assessment  13

CHAPTER 3

Integrated Strategic Forecasting  17

Methodology  17

Example  22

Analytical Value of ISF  25

CHAPTER 4

Conclusion  29

APPENDIXES

A.  A Brief History of Strategic Foresight and Scenario Planning  31

B.  A Brief History of Crowdsourced Forecasting  33

C.  Overview of Aggregation Methods  35

D.  Evidence in Literature for Integrated Strategic Forecasting  37

Abbreviations  41

References  43

About the Authors  49