Foreword  xvii

Acknowledgments  xxi

About the Authors  xxiii

Abbreviations  xxv

Overview  3

Introduction  3

Main contributions  6

Evolution of fiscal policy in commodity-exporting EMDEs since 2000  8

Challenges posed by commodity dependence  12

Policy options  17

Synopsis  26

References  41

Chapter 1 Fiscal Policy Amidst Commodity Price Volatility: Trends and Challenges  49

Introduction  49

Evolution of fiscal outcomes in commodity exporters  55

Fiscal policy during commodity booms and slumps  65

Policy frameworks and institutions in commodity exporters  71

Fiscal policy frameworks, institutional quality, and fiscal responses over commodity cycles  77

Conclusions and policy implications  79

Annex 1A Methodology for dating turning points in commodity prices  82

References  87

Chapter 2 Fiscal Procyclicality in Commodity Exporters: An Enduring Challenge  97

Introduction  97

Fiscal policy procyclicality  101

The effects of fiscal policy procyclicality on output growth  109

Fiscal institutions and frameworks  112

Conclusions  116

References  122

Chapter 3 Fiscal Policy Volatility: Drivers and Implications for Growth  131

Introduction  131

Fiscal policy volatility  134

Implications of fiscal policy volatility for growth  142

Conclusions  144

Annex 3A Link between fiscal policy volatility and economic growth  156

References  162

Chapter 4 The Energy Transition: Fiscal Implications for Commodity Exporters  171

Introduction  171

Metal price changes and fiscal revenues in metal producers  176

Fiscal impacts of metal price shocks  178

Long-run fiscal implications of the energy transition for oil exporters  184

Conclusions and policy implications  189

Annex 4A Analyzing the impact of metal price shocks: Methodology and data  199

Annex 4B Energy transition scenarios  203

References  205

Chapter 5 Managing the Impact of Commodity Price Volatility: Fiscal Policy Options  215

Introduction  215

Fiscal frameworks and institutions  218

Market-based instruments  236

Policy options  239

Conclusions  244

References  249