About This Report  iii

Summary  v

Figures and Tables  xi

CHAPTER 1

Introduction and Background  1

Purpose of This Report  1

Key Context  2

Approach  3

CHAPTER 2

Strategy Overview  11

Mitigation Strategy Assumptions  11

Manage Access to Dangerous and Dual-Use Information  12

Disrupt Materials Access  18

Deter Nefarious Activity  20

Detect Misuse Signals Proactively  26

CHAPTER 3

Comparative Analysis of Strategy Components  33

Coverage Across the Risk Pathway  33

Coverage Across the Threat Actor Space  35

Key Complementarity Clusters  38

CHAPTER 4

Mitigation Readiness  41

Regulatory Environment  41

International Cooperation  42

Trajectory of AI Progress  43

Preliminary Roadmap to Strategy Execution  43

CHAPTER 5

Enabling Conditions and a Path Forward  45

Enabling Conditions  45

Path Forward  46

APPENDIXES

A. Summary Table Describing the Strategy's Nine Mitigations  47

B. AI-Enabled Biological Threat Risk Pathway  53

C. Extended Approach  57

Abbreviations  59

References  61

About the Authors  65