About This Report  iii

Summary  v

Tables  xi

CHAPTER 1

Introduction  1

The Case for Preemptive Governance to Manage the Risks of Mirror Life  2

Growing Recognition of the Tremendous Risks of Mirror Life  3

Why the United States Might Need a National Strategy for Mirror Life  4

Organization of This Report  5

CHAPTER 2

Research Approach  7

Assumptions on the Trajectory of Mirror Life Development  7

Key Limitations of This Report  8

CHAPTER 3

Actors Who Might Pursue Mirror Life  9

Countries with Advanced Biological Science Capabilities  9

Isolated States and Sanctioned Regimes  12

Private Commercial Enterprises  13

Academic and Private Research Institutions  13

Transnational Criminal and Violent Extremist Organizations  14

Apocalyptic Fringe Groups  15

Well-Resourced Lone Individuals and Insider Threats  15

CHAPTER 4

Potential Levers to Address the Development of Mirror Life  17

Levers to Reduce Incentives to Develop Mirror Life  18

Levers to Detect and Deter Early-Stage Development  23

Levers to Disrupt or Punish Advanced Development  28

Levers to Deploy Countermeasures and Build Resilience  29

CHAPTER 5

Principles for a Mirror Life Strategy  33

Mirror Life in Context: Why Historical Analogues Fail  34

Principle 1: Prevention over Mitigation  34

Principle 2: Universal Restraint over Partial Restraint  36

Principle 3: Transparency over Secrecy  36

Principle 4: Cooperation over Coercion  38

Conclusion  39

CHAPTER 6

A U.S. Strategy for Mirror Life  41

Line of Effort 1: Engage Scientific Superpowers to Build the Foundation for Collective Restraint  41

Line of Effort 2: Establish Collective Restraint  44

The Role of Coercive Measures  46

The Role of Countermeasures and Resilience  46

Conclusion  47

Abbreviations  49

References  51