TABLE OF CONTENTS

Abstract 4

The expectation gap 5

The international architecture: burden-shifting without political will 7

Resolution 2719 and the limits of the financing framework 7

The UN funding crisis as political crisis 9

Power mediation and the displacement of AU mediation authority 10

The AU’s institutional architecture under strain 12

Youssouf’s Commission: management over politics 12

Pan-Africanism and Africa’s global voice 13

The Peace Fund: ambition without mechanism 14

The member state problem: sovereignty, elections and absent champions 16

The sovereignty–prevention tension 16

The election cycle and the democracy–stability question 17

The current absence of champion states 18

Spotlight: Sudan, Somalia and the limits of AU engagement 20

Sudan: the limits of AU leverage 20

Somalia: AUSSOM and the question of political will 21

A realistic reorientation: what AU peace operations leadership could look like 22

The case for strategic restraint and prevention 22

Subsidiarity as architecture, not excuse 24

Financing: from donor dependence to strategic investment 24

Democratic governance and the long game 25

Conclusions 27

Notes 30

References 31