Executive Summary 1

Introduction 2

Defining AGI and Assessing Its Prospects 3

China’s AI Vision and AGI’s Role Within It 4

Is China Pursuing AGI? 5

AGI and Mechanisms of Geopolitical Power and Influence 7

Boosted Economic Growth and Productive Capacity 7

Consolidated Influence over the Global Information Environment 8

New Military Capabilities 9

Large-Scale Misalignment or Loss of Control 10

Downstream Political Effects 11

Geopolitical Choices Across the Phases of AGI Development 12

Both States Are Pursuing AGI 12

One State Is on the Cusp of AGI 13

One State Possesses AGI While the Other Does Not 14

Both States Have AGI 15

Phases Could Blur Together 15

Implications and Recommendations 16

Conclusion 18